Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150700
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   200 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 151200-161200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MTNS OF
   S-CENTRAL NM AND SWRN TX...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE VIGOROUS UPPER-
   LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS RAPID MOVEMENT
   TO CENTRAL/NRN NM BY 15/21Z. ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT 500MB WINDS
   IN EXCESS OF 90KT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NM THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
   WRN KS SWD ACROSS THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE. VERTICAL MIXING WILL
   RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SWLY/WLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WEST OF THE
   DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...OK AND TX
   PANHANDLES...WRN AND SWRN TX...AND ERN/SRN NM
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / LOW RH VALUES
   
   FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   MORNING...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
   TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT.  SWLY TO WLY WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TO 25-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DAVIS MTNS OF SWRN TX. STRONG LOW-
   LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   COMPONENT. AN AREA OF MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT WILL
   ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. STRONG GRADIENT
   FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL RESULT IN POOR
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY TO ONLY 25-35 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. 
     
   ..BANACOS.. 04/15/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150658
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   200 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 16/12Z...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   RIVER VALLEY BY 17/12Z. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM
   ERN NEB INTO NRN MO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH KS AND INTO CENTRAL OK AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE BY 17/00Z. A DRY/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN TX AND ERN NM DURING THE PERIOD. 
   
   ...CENTRAL/WRN TX AND ERN NM...  
   INFLUENCE OF CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE DURING WEDNESDAY
   MORNING WITH WLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH EXPECTED. NUMERICAL MODELS
   SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AS SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVER THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES /5-15 PERCENT/
   AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES /MID 70S TO LOW 80S/ ARE
   ANTICIPATED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING...SLY/SWLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-20 MPH BY MID-
   AFTERNOON...PRECLUDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.   
   
   ..BANACOS.. 04/15/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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