Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160756
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   254 AM CDT WED APR 16 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   AN INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER KS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO
   THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 17/12Z WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. 
   ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
   THE PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO WEAKEN RESULTING IN
   DIMINISHING WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING
   SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN
   SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN TX AND NM.   
   
   ...CENTRAL/WRN TX AND ERN NM...  
   INFLUENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
   AS SYSTEM FILLS AND MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   WLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH EXPECTED THIS MORNING WILL LESSEN TO 10-20
   MPH OVER MOST SECTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...DESPITE VERY
   LOW RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
   70S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF ERN NM AND CENTRAL/WRN
   TX...LESSENING OF WIND BY THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING
   SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS. 
   
   ..BANACOS.. 04/16/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160754
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   252 AM CDT WED APR 16 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 171200-181200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS AND
   SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...A STRONG 500MB TROUGH NEAR THE SRN CA
   COAST AT 17/12Z WILL TRANSLATE VERY RAPIDLY EWD REACHING ERN CO BY
   THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
   OF 80-90 KT WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN AZ...CENTRAL/SRN NM...AND FAR WRN
   TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN AZ...SRN/ERN NM...AND
   WRN/SWRN TX
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / LOW RH VALUES
   
   SWLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
   EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING WIND
   FIELDS ALOFT ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SURFACE
   WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER WRN KS AND
   THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
   DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...MINIMUM RH
   VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   RAPID DRYING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS EAST OF CENTRAL NM
   MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
   BE POOR /20-30 PERCENT/ ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX WITH GRADIENT
   WINDS REMAINING STRONG. 
   
   ..BANACOS.. 04/16/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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