Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

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   FNUS21 KWNS 020837
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 021200-031200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SRN UT/NRN AZ/NWRN NM)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A LARGELY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE U.S. DURING THE DAY ONE FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF AN INTENSE
   SCNTRL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRANSLATE INLAND AROUND
   03/12Z. A MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/ERN LAKES
   REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
   FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS FROM MAINE SWWD TO ERN TX AS CANADIAN HIGH
   PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LAKES REGION. IN THE WEST...JUST AHEAD OF
   THE WRN U.S. STORM SYSTEM MUCH OF CA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
   WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
   THRU THE PERIOD. FURTHER EAST...INTO THE SWRN STATES...MUCH DRIER
   AIR WILL BE LOCATED ALONG WITH AN INCREASING WIND REGIME ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE WRN U.S. STORM SYSTEM TO YIELD A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SRN UT/NRN AZ/NWRN NM)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / VERY HIGH
   TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER READINGS / DRY FUELS
   
   AS THE ERN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT EWD
   ONTO THE CA COAST VERY STRONG SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
   CRITICAL AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NOSE OF THE MID-
   LVL JET MAXIMUM WILL TRANSLATE OVER THESE AREAS AROUND 03/00Z AND
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABRUPT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER EXPECT
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS.
   AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES TO RANGE FROM 10-20 PERCENT WITH HIGH
   TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S. GIVEN THAT RECENT
   FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS WERE IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
   CATEGORY AND THAT 10/100 HOUR FUEL READINGS WERE IN THE 2-6 PERCENT
   RANGE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. 
   
   ...NWRN WI/CNTRL AND NRN MN/ERN ND...
   IN A REGION WITH UNDERLYING ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME LONG TERM
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER DIFFICULTIES
   THRU THE PERIOD. RECENT COOP RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THESE AREAS
   HAVE BEEN PRECIPITATION FREE SINCE 4/20/03 AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER
   ANOTHER VERY DRY...WARM...AND MARGINALLY WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY. AS
   THE CENTER OF A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD TODAY...EXPECT
   MINIMUM RH VALUES TO RANGE FROM 15-25 PERCENT...AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
   RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INTO THE LOW 70S WITH INCREASING SSELY WINDS
   FROM 10-20 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST
   BETWEEN 03/00Z AND 03/06Z BUT GOOD RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/02/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020952
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 031200-041200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (NM/ERN AZ/WRN TX/SERN UT/SRN
   CO)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   THE TRANSLATION OF AN IMPULSE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY SWD
   INTO THE PAC NW WILL ACT TO EJECT THE OFFSHORE MID-LVL LOW EWD OVER
   THE SWRN U.S.. FURTHER EAST...AN IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY TO THE ERN SEABOARD WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE
   ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LEE TROUGHING WILL BE
   INDUCED THRU THE PERIOD AIDING IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF A CYCLONE
   FROM ERN CO INTO NCNTRL KS BY 04/12Z. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (NM/ERN AZ/WRN TX/SERN UT/SRN
   CO)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TEMPERATURES / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER READINGS
   
   THE ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND
   EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES THRU THE PERIOD AND WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG WIND REGIME YIELDING CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEWEST MODEL DATA INDICATES AN 80 KT MID-
   LVL JET STREAK WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD LIKELY
   YIELDING SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-35 KTS WITH FREQUENT
   HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT WHILE
   HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70-85 DEGREES. ETA ENSEMBLE
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME OF THE MORE EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE
   LIKELY FROM THE WHITE MTNS IN ERN AZ EWD THRU THE CONTINENTAL
   DIVIDE REGION INTO THE SACRAMENTOS IN SCNTRL NM. IN ADDITION...POOR
   RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AND RECENT FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS
   ACROSS MOST OF NM INDICATE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
   READINGS.
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/02/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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