Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030845
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 031200-041200
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (NM / SERN AZ)...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (NM / ERN AZ / SERN UT / SRN CO
   / WRN TX)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   AIDED BY THE SEWD TRANSLATION OF A GULF OF ALASKA IMPULSE...A
   STRONG MID-UPPER LVL CYCLONE WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE OVER THE SWRN
   U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
   YIELDING WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM ERN AZ
   EWD INTO WRN TX AND AS FAR NORTH AS WCNTRL CO. ELSEWHERE...STRONG
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A QUICKLY
   MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS IL/IN/OH INTO WV/VA WHILE HEAVY
   RAINFALL SHOULD BE A FACTOR FROM NCNTRL CA NWD ALONG THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF NRN CA...ORE...AND WA. 
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (NM / SERN AZ)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TEMPERATURES / VERY DRY FUELS
   
   AS THE ERN PACIFIC SYSTEM OPENS UP AND HEADS INLAND THE NOSE OF A
   STRONG MID-LVL JET / 60-80 KT / IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE OVER THE
   SWRN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM NCNTRL NM SWWD
   INTO SERN AZ INDICATE VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND ALMOST TOTALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS FROM THE
   SURFACE THRU 600MB. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE MID LVL
   WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
   LIKELY WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
   RANGE GENERALLY FROM 5-10 PERCENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
   AROUND 70 IN THE NRN FRINGE AND ELEVATED AREAS TO THE LOW-MID 80S
   IN LOWER AREAS OF SRN/SCNTRL NM. RECENT FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE
   RATINGS REVEAL WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH TO EXTREME READINGS...10 HOUR
   FUELS OF 2 PERCENT...AND 100 HOUR FUEL READINGS FROM 1-4 PERCENT
   ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA.   
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (NM / ERN AZ / SERN UT / SRN CO
   / WRN TX)...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TEMPERATURES / DRY FUELS
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL REGION...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. BY 04/00Z...A SFC LEE
   TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM NRN/NERN WY SWD THRU ERN CO...INTO WRN TX
   WITH THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS SWD THRU EXTREME WRN OK INTO SWRN TX.
   AREAWIDE EXPECT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH...MINIMUM RH
   VALUES FROM 5-20 PERCENT...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW
   70S IN SERN UT/WRN CO TO THE MID-UPPER 80S IN WRN/SWRN TX. POOR RH
   RECOVERIES SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A 90-95 500MB WIND MAXIMUM MOVES OVER SERN
   NM INTO SRN/SERN NM.  
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/03/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030928
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 041200-051200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (NM / WRN TX)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   MID-LVL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NCNTRL PLAINS
   AS THE MID-LVL SPEED MAXIMUM SURGES ENEWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE GULF COAST
   NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG
   WNWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE ECNTRL PACIFIC EWD INTO THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SCATTERED SHWRS EXPECTED FROM NCNTRL CA
   INTO THE PAC NW WITH ONSHORE REGIME. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
   SURFACE DRYLINE IN PARTS OF WRN TX INTO NM ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
   FOCUS AREA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (NM / WRN TX)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / ABNORMALLY
   DRY TO MODERATE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS / HOT TEMPERATURES 
   
   AS A CLOSED MID LVL CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN THE NCNTRL PLAINS REGION A
   STRONG MID-UPPER LVL JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED TO EXPAND OVER THE
   CRITICAL AREA INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. IN RESPONSE
   TO THIS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   AND MOVE INTO ERN NE/WRN IA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH A PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THRU WRN OK INTO SERN NM. EXPECT STRONG
   SUSTAINED WLY/WSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER
   GUSTS...MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 10-15 PERCENT...AND HOT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES FROM 75-90 DEGREES. AN ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL WARMING ESPECIALLY FROM ACROSS PARTS
   OF ERN NM AND WRN TX. AREA MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXPANDED EWD INTO PARTS
   OF WRN OK ON THE SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOK. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/03/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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