Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040823
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 041200-051200
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SERN NM / WRN TX /
   WRN OK)...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (NM / WRN TX / WRN OK / SWRN
   KS)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG ERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
   CONTINUING TO DIG INTO THE BAJA CA REGION WITH VISIBLY ENHANCED
   SUBTROPICAL STREAM ENEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
   WITH THE EJECTION OF THIS DEVELOPING WRN U.S. TROUGH EWD INTO THE
   NCNTRL PLAINS AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRANSLATION OF A VERY STRONG
   WIND REGIME EWD FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOW-MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE PERIOD. AREAS OF STRONG TSTMS
   AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR FURTHER TO THE ENE AS
   THE EWD ADVANCING INTENSE MID-UPPER LVL WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH
   STRONG LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION.  
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SERN NM / WRN TX / WRN
   OK)...  
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY/WSWLY WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES /
   HOT TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE RATES
   
   MODELS AGREE THAT A VERY STRONG SWLY/WSWLY WIND REGIME IS IN STORE
   FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE PERIOD AS A STRONG NEARLY UNIFORM
   DIRECTIONAL WIND EVENT WILL EVOLVE. BY MIDDAY A LOW PRESSURE CNTR
   WILL BE IN NRN KS/SRN NE WITH BOTH A SFC DRYLINE AND TRAILING
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK SWWD FROM THE LO CNTR THRU
   WCNTRL OK INTO SWRN TX. EXPECT VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS
   BETWEEN 20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75-85 MPH IN
   ELEVATED AREAS...MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 5-15 PERCENT...AND SURFACE
   HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 90S. ADDITIONAL
   COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DUE TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND STEEP
   700-500MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL ALSO BE FACTORS TODAY.
   ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS REGION RECEIVED SOME PRECIPITATION 4-5 DAYS
   BACK...THE NATURE OF THE FUELS IN THESE AREAS / GENERALLY 10 HOUR
   FUELS/ WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK AND CONSTANT EVAPORATION OF ANY
   MOISTURE PRESENT.   
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (NM / WRN TX / WRN OK / SWRN
   KS)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY/WSWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TO HOT TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE RATES 
   
   AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA TODAY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. EXPECT SUSTAINED SWLY
   TO WLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER
   GUSTS...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT...AND
   WARM TO HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 70S INTO THE MID 80S.
   WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WLY THEN NWLY BY 05/00Z-12Z AS THE
   PRIMARY AXIS OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS ENEWD INTO THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. 
   
   ...MN/ND...
   THESE AREAS TODAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE NOSE OF A VERY STRONG
   LOW-LVL JET AND INCREASING CHANCES OF BADLY NEEDED PRECIPITATION.
   RECENT NEWS IQ REPORTS AND ABBA SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME
   RECENT BRUSH FIRE DIFFICULTIES IN THESE AREAS RECENTLY GIVEN THE
   LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE AROUND APRIL 20TH.
   EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
   TODAY WITH AN EVER INCREASING MOIST ESELY WIND REGIME. 
     
   ..NADEN.. 05/04/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040848
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...NO AREAS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A STRONG MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE IN NCNTRL CANADA WILL PROHIBIT THE
   UPPER MIDWESTERN MID-UPPER LVL CYCLONE FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT EWD
   TRANSLATION DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
   WILL LINGER IN MN/NWRN WI WITH STRONG SWLY WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
   THE LA COASTAL REGION NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES. CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SWRN U.S./SRN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
   WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE STRONG MID-UPPER LVL WIND AXIS SURGES
   NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ERN LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH STRONG
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S...HIGH RH VALUES
   AND/OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL PRECLUDING ANY MAJOR
   CONCERNS. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/04/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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