Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050821
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   STRONG ZONAL FLOW TO EVOLVE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN
   ELONGATED TROUGH WILL FORM ACROSS THE NRN TIER AS A RESULT OF
   BLOCKING DUE TO AN INTENSE AND STAGNANT CNTRL CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE.
   MAIN SFC CYCLONE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD
   AS A SFC LOW WILL LINGER IN CNTRL OK WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
   STRETCHING BACK SWWD INTO SWRN TX. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL
   TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING
   THE PERIOD AMIDST THE FAST ZONAL FLOW BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE MUCH LESS SEVERE FOR FIRE CONCERNS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.  
   
   ...WRN/SWRN TX...
   MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
   GUADALUPES IN SWRN TX EWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION INTO THE WRN
   HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN
   THE GUADALUPE MTNS REGION...MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY WINDS / 15-25
   MPH / ARE LIKELY IN ALL OF THESE AREAS...AND WILL COMBINE WITH VERY
   LOW RH VALUES / 10 PERCENT /...AND VERY WARM TO HOT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES / 75-80 IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE TO
   YIELD MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER DIFFICULTIES. HOWEVER...THE MARGINALITY
   OF THE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND A RATHER
   LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL ISSUANCE AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS SEVERE THAN THE
   PAST COUPLE DAYS. 
   
   ...VT/NH...
   ANOTHER DAY OF MARGINALLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES IS LIKELY FOR
   THESE AREAS / 30-40 PERCENT/ AMIDST A STRENGTHENING ESELY WIND
   REGIME. MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL AT
   LEAST 06/06Z AS THE AXIS OF THE 850MB LLJ APPROACHES. EXPECT A MILD
   DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE LOW 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
   WINDS FROM 5-15 MPH. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED
   FOR TODAY COUPLED WITH RECENT HIGH AND ABOVE FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE
   RATINGS...AT LEAST SOME CONCERN IS WARRANTED FOR THESE AREAS. 
    
   ..NADEN.. 05/05/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050855
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 061200-071200
   
   ...NO AREAS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   RATHER ZONAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU DAY TWO AS THE NRN TIER MID-
   UPPER LVL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THEN WILL BEGIN TO
   RETROGRADE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WSWLY FLOW OVER THE
   REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
   TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 07/06-12Z INTO SRN CA
   WHILE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY FROM
   THE TX HILL COUNTRY REGION NEWD THRU ECNTRL OK/CNTRL MO...INTO THE
   CNTRL IL/IN/OH REGION. WHILE MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE
   HIGH RH VALUES OR PRECIPITATION...MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN AZ EWD INTO SWRN TX BENEATH THE 
   MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LVL WIND REGIME.
   
   ...SERN AZ/SRN NM/SWRN TX...
   AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGGED INLAND INTO SRN CA
   BETWEEN 07/06-12Z...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND UNDERLYING
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU THE
   DAY TWO PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS BY 06/21Z -
   07/00Z TO THE 15-30 MPH RANGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10
   PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S IN ELEVATED
   AREAS TO THE LOW 90S IN THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF WRN TX. MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST SERN AZ/SWRN NM WILL HAVE THE WORST
   CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
   EXCEPT ON A LOCAL SCALE AT THIS TIME. 
     
   ..NADEN.. 05/05/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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