Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060706
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 061200-071200
     
   ...NO AREAS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A BROAD REGION OF FAST WSWLY MID-UPPER LVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE CNTRL THE CANADIAN RIDGE WILL
   REMAIN ROBUST BUT WILL BEGIN TO HEAD TOWARDS THE WRN HUDSON BAY
   REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AMIDST THE FAST WSWLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN BY 07/12Z WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
   RATHER STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STRETCH FROM ERN GREAT LAKES
   SFC LOW SWWD THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO A NRN OK
   SURFACE LOW WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE SWD THRU CNTRL TX.   
     
   ...ERN AZ/NM/WRN TX...
   BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW / 45-60 KT / EXPECT
   MARGINAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FROM ERN AZ EWD INTO WRN TX. WLY
   SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS WITH
   MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 10-15 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
   THE UPPER 70S IN MTN AREAS TO THE LOW 90S IN THE PLAINS OF WRN/SWRN
   TX. MODELS INDICATE DISCERNABLE BACKING WIND PROFILES AFTER 07/00Z
   AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG SRN CA/SRN GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   HENCE...THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS
   THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AZ...BY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH POOR RH
   RECOVERIES EXPECTED. OVERALL...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
   BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THRU 07/12Z. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/06/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060831
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 071200-081200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SERN AZ/SRN NM/SWRN...WRN
   TX)...
    
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS
   PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM THE SWRN
   STATES INTO THE PLAINS...AND AS A VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LVL LOW
   DIVES SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
   WIDESPREAD IN THE ERN STATES IN BOTH THE WARM SECTOR AND NORTH OF
   THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. OUT WEST...
   PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE FROM
   NRN CA EWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH A LATE NIGHT/EARLY MRNG TSTM
   OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. TO THE SSW OF MUCH OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BENEATH
   INCREASING MID-UPPER LVL WINDS AMIDST A REGION OF VERY DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIR. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SERN AZ/SRN NM/SWRN...WRN TX)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / MODERATE
   LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS / WARM TO HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   
   THE TRANSLATION OF TWO SEPARATE BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
   THESE AREAS WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.
   MODELS PROGS INDICATE THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL SURGE NEWD THRU THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION/NRN NM BETWEEN 07/12Z AND 08/00Z WITH THE
   FOLLOWING STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED THRU AZ INTO NM
   BETWEEN 08/00Z TO 08/12Z. ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...EXPECT
   INCREASING SWLY WINDS TO BECOME SUSTAINED AT 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS...MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 5-17 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
   FROM NEAR 80 IN ELEVATED AREAS TO THE LOW-MID 90S IN THE PLAINS OF
   WRN/SWRN TX. NEW ETA40 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOST EXTREME
   WIND/RH COMBINATION WILL STRETCH FROM THE CHIRICAHUAS IN SERN
   AZ/SWRN NM EWD THRU THE SRN GILAS AND SACREMENTOS...INTO THE
   GUADALUPE MTNS OF SRN NM/WRN TX. EXPECT VERY POOR RH RECOVERIES
   OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND
   REGIME...65-75 KTS AT 500MB BETWEEN 08/00Z THRU 08/12Z. MANY OF
   THESE AREAS CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY VERY DRY FUELS WITH RECENT
   100/1000 HR FUEL READINGS FROM 1-4 AND 4-8 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY.
   THE MID-APRIL PERIOD WAS THE LAST TIME EVEN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
   FELL IN MANY OF THESE AREAS ACCORDING TO COOPERATIVE RAINFALL
   REPORTS. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/06/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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