Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070752
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 071200-081200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SERN AZ / SRN NM / WRN...SWRN
   TX)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP WRN U.S.
   TROUGH TO DEVELOP AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE EWD FROM
   THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE SRN PLAINS. FURTHER EAST...AN IMPULSE WILL
   SURGE THRU THE SRN LAKES/NRN OHIO VALLEY REGION YIELDING WIDESPREAD
   SHWRS/TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION NEWD INTO PA/NY WITH
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. THE SWRN STATES WILL AGAIN BE THE CENTER OF FIRE WX
   CONCERNS AS STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THIS REGION THRU THE DAY ONE PERIOD. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SERN AZ / SRN NM / WRN...SWRN
   TX)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TEMPERATURES / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS
    
   MID-LVL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE FORECAST
   PERIOD AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO THE
   PLAINS STATES AND A LARGER SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
   ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE OVER THESE AREAS
   UNTIL BETWEEN 08/06-12Z...INCREASING FLOW OUT IN ADVANCE WILL BE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR YIELDING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT SWLY
   WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-35 MPH...WITH
   AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 5-15 PERCENT...AND SURFACE HIGHS
   TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 80S IN SERN AZ TO THE MID-UPPER 90S IN
   THE PLAINS OF SWRN/WRN TX. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR...ESPECIALLY IN
   LEEWARD AREAS...SERN/ERN NM AND SWRN TX. MUCH OF THE CRITICAL AREA
   HAS HAD RECENT FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS IN THE VERY HIGH TO
   EXTREME CATEGORY...WITH 10/100 HR FUELS READINGS FROM 2-3 PERCENT
   AND 1-5 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY.     
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   
   EXPECT MARGINALLY CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN THIS
   REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SUSTAINED
   TO BETWEEN 20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
   PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
   60S TO LOW 70S. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS DURING
   THE FCST PERIOD...SOME CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
   TIMES IN THIS REGION...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED COOLER HIGH
   TEMPERATURES...AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER RH VALUES / 15-20 PERCENT /
   ANTICIPATED WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE A CRITICAL AREA. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/07/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070922
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 081200-091200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SERN AZ / NM / WRN TX / OK
   PANHANDLE)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONE STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/CNTRL
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE PROGGED
   TO TRANSLATE INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN BY 09/12Z. THE INITIAL
   IMPULSE COUPLED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD ANOTHER
   ROUND OF SEVERE WX AND SPREAD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE WRN
   CAROLINAS NWWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. WILL
   EXPERIENCE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WX SITUATION AS STRONG WIND FLOW
   ALOFT WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT AND WILL COMBINE WITH DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIR TO ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.   
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SERN AZ / NM / WRN TX / OK
   PANHANDLE)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WLY/WSWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TO HOT TEMPERATURES / RECENT HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE
   RATINGS
   
   AS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THESE AREAS AND
   MOVES NEWD BETWEEN 08/12Z TO 09/00Z EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WX
   CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM SERN AZ ENEWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WITH
   70-75 KTS OF SWLY 500MB FLOW OVERHEAD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS / WITH
   700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM / SUGGEST THESE WINDS WILL MIX
   DOWN ABRUPTLY TO THE SURFACE IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
   WLY/WSWLY WINDS FROM 20-35 MPH...MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 5-15
   PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S IN ELEVATED
   AREAS TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN WRN TX. VERY DRY CONDITIONS
   REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AND NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. 
   
   
   ...SERN CA/SRN NV/SRN UT/NRN AZ...
   MODELS INDICATE THE IMPINGEMENT OF A VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LVL JET
   STREAK OVER THESE AREAS BETWEEN 08/18Z AND 09/06Z ASSOCIATED WITH
   A SWD MOVING CLOSED MID-LVL CYCLONE IN THE PAC NW. EXPECT WINDS TO
   INCREASE BETWEEN 08/18Z TO 09/00Z TO 20-30 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
   AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EWD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL THE
   EARLY EVENING...RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 15-25
   PERCENT IN THESE AREAS...AND WITH MANY RECENT FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE
   RATINGS IN THE LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORY DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR
   DIFFICULTIES AT THIS TIME. 
     
   ..NADEN.. 05/07/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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