Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080836
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 081200-091200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (ERN NM / SERN CO / SWRN KS /
   SWRN/WRN TX)...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   QUITE ACTIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST
   PERIOD WITH A BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH TO PERSIST WITH RIDGING IN THE
   TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. A CLOSED LOW IN THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL
   ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE ENEWD TRANSLATION OF A VERY STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM AZ/NM INTO THE KS/NE/IA/MO AREAS WHERE SOME
   HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TSTMS ARE LIKELY. TO THE WEST-
   SOUTHWEST...BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN PARTS OF NM/TX/CO/OK/AND
   KS...EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS AS STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RH
   VALUES AND VERY WARM TO HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.   
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (ERN NM / SERN CO / SWRN KS /
   SWRN...WRN TX)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY...WLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TO HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES / ABNORMALLY DRY LONG TERM DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS
   
   ANOTHER WIND/RH EVENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AS EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY REVEALS A STRONG MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
   WRN STATES. MODELS AGREE IN THE TRANSLATION OF A POTENT MID-UPPER
   LVL IMPULSE NEWD FROM CNTRL AZ TO SERN CO/WRN KS BY MIDDAY AND INTO
   NERN KS/ERN NEB/WRN IA BY 09/00Z. THE WINDS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE /70-80 KTS AT 500MB/ WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
   BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES WEST OF THE SFC DRYLINE TO YIELD A LARGE
   AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT SWLY/WLY SUSTAINED
   WINDS FROM 20-35 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM RH VALUES
   FROM 7-15 PERCENT...AND SURFACE HIGHS TO REACH FROM NEAR 80 IN SERN
   CO/SWRN KS TO THE MID-UPPER 90S IN SWRN TX. AMIDST ABNORMALLY DRY
   LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...SOME OF THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
   PERIODS OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. HOWEVER DECIDED
   AGAINST THIS THRESHOLD OF ISSUANCE AS THE AREAS UNDER CONSIDERATION
   /NWRN TX/ JUST RECEIVED SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.   
   
   ...NRN AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION/WRN NM...
   DECIDED AGAINST A CRITICAL ISSUANCE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO THE
   MARGINALITY OF EXPECTED MINIMUM RH VALUES AT 15 PERCENT OR BELOW.
   SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS
   IS ALSO LESS LIKELY THAN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CNTRL NM MOUNTAIN
   CHAIN AND SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
   NEVERTHELESS...BRISK SWLY/WLY WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM
   RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT IN AREAS THAT ARE AMIDST
   A MODERATE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT. 
    
   ..NADEN.. 05/08/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080948
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   ATLINE.7
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (ERN AZ / NM / EXTREME WRN TX/
   EXTREME SRN CO)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A WRN U.S. TROUGH AND ERN U.S. RIDGE LARGE-SCALE SETUP WILL BE
   INTACT FOR THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS INTO
   THE SRN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE NEXT IMPULSE TRANSLATES INTO THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION. BY 10/00Z...A LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL EXTEND ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE ERN STATES WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT
   TO STRETCH FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO SRN KS. FROM WEST OF THE SURFACE
   DRYLINE INTO ERN AZ ANOTHER STRONG WIND/LOW RH EVENT WILL BE ON TAP
   FOR TODAY AS RATHER PERSISTENT STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LVL FLOW
   CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (ERN AZ / NM / EXTREME WRN TX/
   EXTREME SRN CO)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM TO HOT
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES / RECENT HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE
   RATINGS
   
   A BROAD LARGE-SCALE WRN U.S. MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
   EWD DURING THE PERIOD AS AN ASSOCIATED POTENT MID-LVL SPEED MAXIMUM
   IS PROGGED TO SURGE ENEWD OVER NM. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU NM UNTIL EARLY SAT MRNG...VERY
   STRONG SWLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
   SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG UNIFORM SWLY WINDS...
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
   EXPECT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-40 MPH...MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM
   5-15 PERCENT...AND SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO
   NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 80S TO LOW/MID 90S IN THE SOUTHERN
   PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA. SOME OF THE MORE SEVERE CONDITIONS
   ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CNTRL MTN CHAIN REGION OF NM FROM THE SRN CO
   SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS SWD INTO THE SACRAMENTOS. POOR RH RECOVERY
   SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN PORTIONS
   OF TX. 
    
   ..NADEN.. 05/08/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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