Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170845
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   345 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 171200-181200
     
   ...NO AREAS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A 700MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
   THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA THIS PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW MINIMUM
   RH VALUES. BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A BROAD BAROCLINIC TROUGH ACROSS
   THE NWRN CONUS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL
   TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
   EVENING. 
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...  
   BY AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SWLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN UT...NRN AZ...NWRN NM...AND WRN CO IN RESPONSE
   TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WINDS COULD
   LOCALLY REACH 30-35 MPH ACROSS SRN UT BENEATH ANTICIPATED CORE OF
   STRONGEST UPPER FLOW. A MITIGATING FACTOR IN SEVERITY OF FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD
   TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NUMERICAL MODELS
   ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN
   CENTRAL/SRN UT WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
   AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. FURTHER SOUTH....MUCH WARMER
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AZ/NM...WITH VERY LOW MINIMUM RH
   VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR
   BELOW 20 MPH IN THESE AREAS KEEPING FIRE WEATHER THREAT BELOW
   CRITICAL LEVELS THIS PERIOD.  
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/17/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
     
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170839
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   340 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 181200-191200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF AZ AND NM...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SRN CA COAST AT
   18/12Z WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
   MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED 500MB JET WITH WINDS OF 45-50KT WILL
   TRANSLATE ACROSS SRN CA INTO AZ DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - AZ AND NM...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES / MODERATE
   TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   
   WLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   MUCH OF AZ/NM. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 PERCENT
   ACROSS SERN AZ AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE
   FROM 10-15 PERCENT. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN
   THE LOW 90S TO 102 ACROSS SRN NM/SRN AZ...AND IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
   90S AT LOW ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. MODERATE TO SEVERE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN ADDITION
   TO ANTICIPATED AMBIENT CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER TO AZ/NM DURING MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION SHOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN WIND
   AT LOW ELEVATIONS BY LATE EVENING...WITH GRADUAL RH RECOVERY DURING
   THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. 
     
   ..BANACOS.. 05/17/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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