Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290855
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 291200-301200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - A PORTION OF THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
   SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SRN CANADA
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE
   OF THIS SHORTWAVE. FARTHER WEST...A COMPACT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OFF
   THE CA COAST WILL APPROACH NRN CA. INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT 
   AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA/SRN ORE CASCADES
   BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORING DRY LIGHTNING. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NWRN/NCENTRAL NV...FAR SERN ORE
   AND SWRN ID...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DRY THUNDERSTORMS / HIGH
   LIGHTNING INGNITION EFFICIENCY
   
   AREA REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY AND ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD
   TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE FOR VERY LOW RH READINGS. EARLY MORNING
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO
   MOVE NWD OVER SRN NV/SERN CA. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT
   NWD THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
   LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   THE PRESENCE OF VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.60
   INCHES AND CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS AROUND 550 MB. STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC
   SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING WILL ALLOW FOR A CRITICAL DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE
   REGION. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   ONLY EXACERBATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
   MOVEMENT WILL BE NNEWD AROUND 25-30 MPH. THIS WILL TAKE
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS INTO
   PORTIONS OF NWRN NV/SERN ORE AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN ID OVERNIGHT. 
   
   ..NCENTRAL/NERN MT AND FAR NWRN ND...
     
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER SK/AB CANADA WILL MOVE SEWD
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. FORCING FROM THIS
   SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
   LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER NRN MT.
   BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID
   LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN NWLY SFC WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA...WITH AFTERNOON MAX
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AND RH READINGS AS LOW AS 15
   PERCENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 30/02Z WITH ONSET OF SFC
   COOLING. LACK OF LONG TERM DROUGHT AND MARGINAL FIRE DANGERS OVER
   THE AREA WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   OUTLOOK AREA. 
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES/ERN GREAT BASIN...
   ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE FROM THE SERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS MOVES NEWD AROUND
   THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS AND CLOUD
   BASES AROUND 600 MB WILL FAVOR SOME OF THIS CONVECTION POSING A
   THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE DRY
   LIGHTNING WILL BE OVER UT/WRN CO AND SWRN WY. LACK OF ORGANIZED
   FORCING MECHANISM AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DIMINISHING
   AFTER SUNSET WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   OUTLOOK.
     
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/29/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290951
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 301200-311200
     
   ...NO AREAS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
   DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE WEAKENING. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
   WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES IN
   RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVEMENT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
   PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION BEING FOUND OVER THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. 
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN...
   AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
   VERY DRY. CLOUD COVER FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION MAY RETARD
   HEATING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SERN
   ORE/WRN ID SWD INTO NRN NV. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR DRY LIGHTNING. UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL
   FORCING WITH WEAKENING TROUGH AND CONSEQUENT COVERAGE OF DRY
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
   AT THIS TIME.  
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN AZ...
   WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO AS IT
   MOVES AROUND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. VERY WARM
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW RH READINGS WILL FAVOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION
   OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD INTO AZ
   DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
   DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/29/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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