Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090806
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 AM CDT MON JUN 09 2003
   
   VALID 091200-101200
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN GREAT BASIN / FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE NWLY MID-UPPER LVL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   NATION TODAY. FEATURES INCLUDE...A STRONG IMPULSE TO SHIFT NEWD THRU
   QUEBEC...A NRN/NCNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL SURGE EWD
   INTO THE WRN LAKES...WHILE DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A BAJA
   REGION MID-UPPER LVL LOW WILL AFFECT THE SWRN STATES. WITH THE
   EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA AND THE FAR NERN U.S....MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD
   OF THE U.S. WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AMIDST A LIGHT WLY WIND REGIME AND
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FIRE WEATHER PROBLEM AREAS FOR TODAY ARE
   CENTERED IN THE SWRN STATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH WET AND DRY
   TSTMS IN THE REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NV / SRN UT / NRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WLY...SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / HOT
   TEMPERATURES / MAINLY HIGH TO EXTREME ADJECTIVE RATINGS
   
   WLY TO WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THESE AREAS
   TODAY AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE NORTH IN THE
   GREAT BASIN AND A MID-UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER SRN CA.
   THIS INCREASING WLY/WSWLY WIND REGIME WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH
   VALUES AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-35 MPH...MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 10-15
   PERCENT...AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID
   80S IN MTNS AREAS OF SWRN UT TO THE LOW 100S IN SRN NV. RH VALUES
   SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WIND
   MAGNITUDES WILL STAY STRONG THRU 10/06Z. THESE AREAS ARE ALL
   EXPERIENCING EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS VIA THE MOST
   RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.
   
   ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
   THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS IN
   THESE AREAS AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BAJA
   MID-UPPER LVL CYCLONE TRANSLATES THRU THE REGION. AT THIS
   TIME...EXPECT MOST OF THESE TSTMS TO BE WET AS 850MB MODEL PW FIELDS
   AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0.75 INCHES IN THE REGION AND SURFACE RH
   VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL VALUE OF 15
   PERCENT....LIKELY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER....AT LEAST
   SOME DRY TSTMS ARE LIKELY IN SPOTS AS LIGHTNING COVERAGE SHOULD BE
   SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND AREA FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS
   ARE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.
   
   ..NADEN.. 06/09/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090934
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 AM CDT MON JUN 09 2003
   
   VALID 101200-111200
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CONTINUATION OF FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
   SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN TIER WHILE THE SRN CA MID-UPPER
   LVL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
   SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. STRENGTHENING MID-LVL FLOW AND
   SEVERAL RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AID IN LEE TROUGH
   FORMATION FROM CNTRL MT SWD THRU ERN CO SWD INTO ERN NM/SWRN TX BY
   11/00Z.
   
   ...NM/NERN AZ/SRN CO...
   SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
   THE CNTRL NM MTN CHAIN ON TUESDAY AND SOME TO MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
   COULD BE DRY IN NATURE. AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY...NEAR TO ALONG THE CO BORDER...WILL BE
   WET AS PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CRITICAL
   LEVELS. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...INTO WRN/NWRN NM AS WELL AS
   NCNTRL/CNTRL NM AREAS MORE DRY TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
   REMNANTS OF BAJA/SRN REGION MID-UPPER LVL IMPULSE TRANSLATE THRU THE
   REGION. AN UPGRADE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOK
   AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MANY AREAS  SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST
   BETWEEN 100-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...VERY LITTLE INHIBITION...AND
   700-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 9-9.5 C/KM.
   
   ..NADEN.. 06/09/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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