Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120747
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003
   
   VALID 121200-131200
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RATHER PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS
   AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG SRN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN INTACT FROM THE SRN
   CA/BAJA REGION EWD THRU THE SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
   ELSEWHERE...A STRONG MID-UPPER LVL CYCLONE WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD
   IN THE NERN PACIFIC TO OFF THE WRN CANADIAN COAST WITH ASSOCIATED
   PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO THE PAC NW AREA AND RIDGING EWD FROM THE
   NRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WITH THE ENHANCED SRN STREAM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ESEWD TO
   NRN SONORA/SRN AZ BY 13/12Z...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL MORE SUBTLE
   DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM AZ/NM INTO THE ADJACENT
   PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX/OK DURING THE PERIOD LIKELY AIDING IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS FROM SWRN TX NNEWD
   INTO SWRN/SRN KS. ALTHOUGH NO DEFINITIVE AREAS OF LARGE-SCALE STRONG
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
   DURING THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR AREAS OF
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS.
   
   ...ERN NV/NERN NV/NWRN UT...
   AMIDST A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE WSWLY MID-UPPER LVL FLOW REGIME...EXPECT
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF DRY TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON FROM ECNTRL NV ENEWD INTO ERN/NERN NV AND NWRN UT.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS REVEAL TYPICAL INVERTED V PROFILES
   WITH VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES / 9-10 C/KM / ...CAPE VALUES
   FROM 50-200 J/KG...AND PW VALUES FROM .30-.50 INCHES. ALTHOUGH MOST
   OF THE ANTICIPATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY INITIATED...SOME
   MORE ORGANIZED...ADDITIONAL VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED INTO THESE
   AREAS BETWEEN 13/00Z-06Z AS A STRONG CYCLONE NEARS THE PAC
   NW/CANADIAN COAST.
   
   ..NADEN.. 06/12/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120948
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003
   
   VALID 131200-141200
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD GENERAL LARGE-SCALE SWRN U.S TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES BETWEEN 14/00Z AND 14/06Z LIKELY
   LEADING TO SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE FROM SWRN TX NWD
   THRU THE SRN PLAINS INTO NRN NM/SRN CO. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED
   MID-UPPER LVL LOW IN THE NERN PACIFIC WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE SLOWLY
   NEWD TO COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY PROGGED TO ADVANCE NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES/SNAKE RIVER
   VALLEY REGION. SOME WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF SERN
   NM/WRN TX BEHIND THE DRYLINE DURING THE PERIOD BUT BOUNDARY LAYER 
   WIND/RH COMBINATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN QUITE
   DRY...LARGE-SCALE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND TSTMS SHOULD
   REMAIN FURTHER NNEWD...IN PARTS OF NERN/NRN NM INTO SRN CO WHERE
   MAINLY WET TSTMS ARE LIKELY.
   
   ...SWRN WY/WRN WY/NERN UT/NRN UT/ERN ID...
   BENEATH MODEST SWLY FLOW...SOME ISOLATED DRY TSTM ACTIVITY IS
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS A PAC NW TROUGH TRANSLATES NEWD INTO WRN
   CANADA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND A SURFACE COLD
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE REGION. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE AMPLE CAPE VALUES / 50-300 J/KG /...PW VALUES FROM .30-.50
   INCHES...AMIDST A RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PROGGED LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RH VALUES FROM 15-20 PERCENT. IN
   ADDITION...VERTICAL MOTION IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ERN ID/WRN
   WY....WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGES ON
   THE REGION FROM 14/00Z-06Z. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IS AN EXTREME TO
   EXCEPTIONAL LONG TERM DROUGHT WITH MOST RECENT FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE
    RATINGS IN THE HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY. WILL OPT TO VIEW NEWER
   MODEL DATA TOMORROW MRNG...BUT AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL IS POSSIBLE IF
   COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.
   
   ..NADEN.. 06/12/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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