Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230803
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN UT...WRN CO...AND
   N-CENTRAL NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS STATES AND SRN GREAT BASIN REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXTREMELY ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS PERIOD. UNSEASONABLE STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH
   ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS IS FORECAST BY 00Z ETA AND GFS RUNS TO
   AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE DIVING
   SEWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. ASSOCIATED 500MB SPEED MAX AND STRONG
   HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BRING MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS JUXTAPOSED
   WITH WRN PERIPHERY OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS SRN ROCKIES OF NM
   AND CO AND GENERALLY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
   THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES TO PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   STATES TODAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST SOUTH OF
   SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL NV EWD INTO
   CENTRAL UT AND NEWD INTO FAR NWRN CO.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN UT...WRN CO...AND
   N-CENTRAL NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / VERY LOW RH VALUES / GENERALLY DRY FUELS
   
   DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SWLY
   SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20 MPH OR
   GREATER PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. DRY SWLY FLOW REGIME COMBINED
   WITH LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WILL
   RESULT IN VERY LOW RH MINIMUMS OF 8-15 PERCENT. NCEP SHORT-RANGE
   ENSEMBLE FROM 22/21Z PROJECTS A LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF FOSBERG
   INDEX VALUES OF 75 OR GREATER ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY AND
   ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST OF FOSBERG INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 50.
   COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATELY STRONG TO STRONG
   WINDS FOR A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD IN AREAS CONTAINING DRY FUELS SUGGEST
   AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL/SRN NV...CENTRAL/SRN
   UT...CENTRAL/WRN CO...CENTRAL/WRN NM...AND AZ EXCLUDING SWRN
   PORTION...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW TO VERY LOW RH VALUES /
   GENERALLY DRY FUELS
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...NWD TO THE
   QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ENEWD
   TO FAR NWRN CO...MODERATE WLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL BE
   COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 8-20 PERCENT
   ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/23/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230841
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND SERN
   GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   SHOULD SPREAD 500MB WINDS OF 50-60KT ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE
   BASE OF THE TROUGH. A LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY AXIS WILL EXTEND
   FROM S-CENTRAL AZ NEWD ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING BENEATH JET MAX WITH WIDESPREAD LOW RH
   VALUES AND MODERATE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE SERN GREAT BASIN AND
   FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
   SHOULD BEGINNING LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE END
   OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PER 23/00Z ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NV...CENTRAL/SRN
   UT...WRN/CENTRAL CO...NM EXCEPT EAST AND FAR SOUTH...AND AZ
   EXCLUDING SWRN PORTION...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   REDEVELOPMENT OF SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH...WITH WINDS TO 35
   MPH POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS/HIGHER TERRAIN
   AREAS...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
   PERIOD AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
   AND 90S ACROSS LOW ELEVATION AREAS...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LOW RH
   VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
   PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN MOST SECTIONS BY LATE EVENING...
   HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS AND POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG
   WINDS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AZ/SRN UT ENEWD ACROSS SRN
   CO/NRN NM WHERE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/23/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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