Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100836
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2003
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER FOCUS FOR
   THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS IN THE WEST WILL BE
   GENERALLY LIGHT / 10-20 MPH /...BUT THERE WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW RH
   VALUES AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
   ELSEWHERE...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EARLY THIS
   MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
   OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...POTENTIAL FOR DRY TSTMS...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED VIA THE E/SELY FLOW UNDER THE
   RIDGE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY TSTMS. TODAY...THE BEST
   CHANCE FOR DRY/HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS NEW MEXICO...MAINLY
   IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PORTIONS OF
   ERN NM SHOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR
   2000 J/KG...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH. THIS
   SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
   STORMS...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER HIGHER
   TERRAIN...WHERE LITTLE RAIN MAY FALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
   SOME MOISTURE INTO EXTREME SERN AZ...SO DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
   THIS REGION AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST...VERY DRY CONDITIONS
   SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/10/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100915
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2003
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE WRN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
   WEST...WHILE IN THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NE INTO QUEBEC.
   MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ELY ACROSS THE DESERT
   SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DRY TSTMS.
   MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. AN AREA
   OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS CNTRL KS WITH A
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW INTO NE CO/WY. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF CO/WY/NM/AZ...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY TSTMS ACROSS
   UT/ID AND MT. FUEL MOISTURE VALUES FOR 100/1000 HOUR FUELS ARE LESS
   THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY HIGH
   LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY VALUES. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF
   DRY TSTMS...STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/10/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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