Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150932
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN WY/ WRN SD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SWRN/WRN U.S. LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD
   DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROMINENT RIDGING PROGGED TO BUILD FROM THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES NWD INTO THE PLAINS OF ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS.
   MEANWHILE...WRN GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD
   INTO QUEBEC AS A NERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LVL CYCLONE ROTATES SLOWLY
   TOWARDS THE PAC NW REGION. EXPECT A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROUGH
   OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST REGION AS A RESULT...WITH SEVERAL
   RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULUSES EXPECTED TO RIDE ENEWD INTO THE
   CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER INTERIOR WEST LARGE-SCALE
   WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
   THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN COAST TROUGH AS WELL AS A FURTHER NWD EXPANSION
   OF MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SWRN STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EVER-STRENGTHENING MONSOONAL REGIME.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NERN WY / WRN SD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY TSTMS / LOW RH VALUES / HOT
   TEMPERATURES / DRY 100 HR FUELS
   
   EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING SHIELD OF MID-LVL
   MOISTURE FROM THE SWRN STATES ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE AHEAD
   OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COASTAL REGION. EXPECT TSTM
   ACTIVITY TO INITIATE OVER CNTRL/NCNTRL WY AND SPREAD EWD INTO ERN
   WY/WRN SD. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL OCCUR IN THE BLACK HILLS REGION. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT WHILE HIGH
   TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST AREAS...UPPER 70S
   IN THE MTNS. DESPITE SOME RECENT PRECIPITATION...STRONG SUMMER
   INSOLATION AND LOW BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH RECENT
   4-6 PERCENT 100 HR FUEL READINGS TO YIELD A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA. LESS THAN .10 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE
   AREAS DURING THE FCST PERIOD.
   
   ...NV/UT...
   A MARGINALLY CRITICAL WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM SCNTRL NV ENEWD
   INTO WRN/CNTRL AREAS OF UT WITH SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 10-25 MPH
   AND HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE VERY LOW RH READINGS / 5-10 PERCENT / AND
   HOT TEMPERATURES / MID 90S TO LOWER 100S / ...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
   SUSTAINED WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN ONGOING FIRE ACTIVITY...SOME ADDITIONAL FIRE
   DIFFICULTIES ARE LIKELY.
   
   
   ...SWRN/WRN CO...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THESE AREAS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
   THE SWRN U.S. CONTINUES TO ADVECT ENEWD AROUND THE PERSISTENT
   MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY UNSTABLE
   ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT IN THESE AREAS...WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD
   LAYER...AND SURFACE RH VALUES FROM 15-25 PERCENT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
   BE WIDELY SCATTERED OVERALL...ALTHOUGH GIVEN VERY TO EXTREME FIRE
   DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS AND HIGH LIGHTNING EFFICIENCY VALUES...THE
   UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE RECEPTIVE TO LIGHTNING INITIATED
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ...NERN ORE...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM NCNTRL/NRN ORE EWD INTO
   NERN ORE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
   MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND HIGH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN THE REGION...AS WELL AS
   SOME HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS...SOME FIRE WX
   RELATED PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
   ISOLATED.
   
   ..NADEN.. 07/15/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151009
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SWRN/WRN U.S. LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ITS PRESENCE
   ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES REGION BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD
   WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND NWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND AHEAD OF
   STRONG PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH. NERN U.S. GENERAL TROUGHING
   TO WEAKEN SOME DURING PERIOD BUT THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   SOME OF THE COOLEST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY VIA CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
   DEPARTING SYSTEM. WRN U.S./ROCKIES RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NNE TO
   BEGIN TO ALLOW RICHER LOWER-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE SWRN STATES IN
   COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLAUDETTE REMNANTS.
   
   ...NRN AZ/SRN UT/SWRN CO...
   
   ON THE NRN PERIPHERY ON INCREASING LOWER-MIDDLE LAYER MOISTURE IN
   THE SWRN U.S...EXPECT AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY TSTM THREAT IN
   THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. WITH EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER
   RH VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT...STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING...AND RECENT FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
   VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY...THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME DRY TSTM
   ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS. WILL ATTEMPT TO BETTER FOCUS THE THREAT
   AREA IN UPCOMING OUTLOOK. 
   
   ...WRN MT/SWRN MT...
   
   EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY TSTM COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS DURING
   THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FCST
   SOUNDINGS REVEAL INVERTED V PROFILES...VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
   RATES...AMPLE CAPE VALUES...AND PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
   MIDDLE 90S. MARGINAL LARGER SCALE SWLY WIND THREAT IS ALSO
   PROBABLE...ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY COME FROM
   STRONG DOWNBURST WIND ACTIVITY IN AND AROUND TSTM ACTIVITY.
   
   ..NADEN.. 07/15/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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