Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230815
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2003
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN WA...NRN ID...WRN MT...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN FRINGE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO FLOW OVER WA INTO MT. A MIXTURE OF DRY AND WET
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL ID INTO SWRN MT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NEWD OUT OF OREGON. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITHIN SURFACE THERMAL AXIS ALONG THE WRN
BORDER OF ID.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN WA INTO WRN MT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: INCREASING WLY WINDS...LOW RH
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...WLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND 100S AND MIN RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
DRY...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER N CENTRAL ID INTO SWRN MT.
...CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SWRN MONTANA...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING NEWD OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE NEWD...AND BY AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY TYPES. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE CONSISTENT
WITH THE MONSOON BUT INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE
STORMS TO MOVE EWD AT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR FASTER. THUS...RAINFALL
DURATIONS COULD BE SHORT WITH INCREASED THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING.
...ERN MT...
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...SURFACE TROUGH OVER E CENTRAL MT WILL
SHIFT EWD TO THE ND BORDER BY 00Z. WINDS ACROSS ERN MT WILL SHIFT
FROM SLY TO NWLY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SPEEDS OF 15-20 CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT...IT WILL BE
HOT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 95-100 F RANGE. MIN RH LEVELS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR 20 PERCENT...AND RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD OVERNIGHT.
..JEWELL.. 07/23/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230910
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2003
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT SEWD AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND WRN GREAT BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND AGAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE. FURTHER E...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MOVE NEWD FROM WY INTO WRN SD.
...ERN WA...
A CONTINUATION OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ON
THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECREASED SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
CRITICALLY LOW RH NEAR 15 PERCENT E OF THE CASCADES.
...ERN MT...WY...
W AND NW WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND HOT TEMPERATURES FOR
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVALENT WEST OF SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL ND SWWD THROUGH NERN WY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO THE
LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR OVER SERN MT AND ERN WY...MAKING FOR LOW RH
VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT. WLY WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15 MPH.
IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN W OF THIS TROUGH...OVER SERN MT AND NERN WY. VERY HOT AND
DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE LITTLE
RAIN.
..JEWELL.. 07/23/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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