Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250836
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 3
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2003
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW ON
   THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EWD
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WILL AID WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SD
   BY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LEE
   TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN TX WILL ENHANCE SURFACE
   WIND FIELDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   RIVER VALLEY.
   
   MEANWHILE...PLUME OF VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
   FROM THE SWRN STATES STATES NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MODERATELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS
   PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER EARLY THIS
   MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD THIS PERIOD BRINGING A NLY WIND
   SHIFT TO MUCH OF ERN MT/WRN ND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
   SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER THREAT BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...CENTRAL AND
   WRN KS...WRN OK INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / HOT TEMPERATURES / LOW RH
   VALUES / DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
   
   HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F COMBINED WITH SLY AFTERNOON WINDS OF
   15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ABSENCE OF
   SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE LAST FEW
   WEEKS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF DRY GRASSES. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
   20-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...DURING LIKELY
   PERIOD OF MAXIMUM WIND WILL YIELD A RELATIVELY HIGH THREAT FOR
   WIND-DRIVEN GRASSFIRES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
   SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES RESULTING IN DECREASING SURFACE
   WINDS AND GOOD RH RECOVERY TO GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT DURING THE
   EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/25/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250855
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2003
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...A STRONG 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
   ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   TO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED IN THE
   VICINITY OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD TO CENTRAL NEB AT 26/12Z. THIS
   SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...MOIST PATTERN WILL PERSIST
   WITH PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
   RIDGE. THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
   MOST PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...IS ANTICIPATED. LIMITED
   POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GRADIENT WINDS GENERALLY 20 MPH
   OR LESS WILL MITIGATE LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
   WRN CONUS.
   
   ...WRN KS AND OK PANHANDLE...
   
   HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 98-105F RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...SIMILAR TO HIGHS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
   HOWEVER...PRESENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY MORE
   MOIST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON...UP 5 PERCENT OR SO COMPARED TO RH MINIMUMS EXPECTED
   FRIDAY. WEAKER GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MOST SECTIONS. WITH FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS LIKELY LESS SEVERE THAN THOSE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY
   1 PERIOD...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
   TIME. HOWEVER...REGION WILL BE REASSESSED IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1
   OUTLOOK FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IF AMBIENT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
   MORE FAVORABLE THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/25/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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