Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310822
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADE MTNS
   AND ADJACENT COLUMBIA BASIN...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL ID MTNS SEWD
   INTO WRN/CENTRAL WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL - MTNS OF
   N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL - MTNS OF
   S-CENTRAL ORE AND N-CENTRAL CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE FROM THE NWRN GREAT
   BASIN SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED 700MB
   THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM ERN WA/ORE TO SWRN MT/SERN ID BY
   THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO
   RECENT DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV
   IMAGERY OVER ERN WA/NRN ORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED 35-45KT 500MB SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS SWRN
   MT AND NWRN WY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN SLOPES OF WA/ORE CASCADES AND
   ADJACENT PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH VALUES / LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS /
   VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
   
   WITH SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS ERN WA AND
   DEEPENING MARINE LAYER ALONG COASTAL WA/ORE...ENHANCED MSL GRADIENT
   ACROSS THE CASCADE RANGE SUGGESTS DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
   IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH
   TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED
   TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. VERY LOW RH MINIMUMS
   OF 8-15 PERCENT WILL AGAIN BE COMMONPLACE. LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN POOR RH RECOVERY IN SOME SPOTS
   ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL ID MTNS SEWD
   INTO WRN/CENTRAL WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   REGION OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
   DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WLY
   TO NWLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AXIS...WITH RH MINIMUMS OF 8-15 PERCENT. COINCIDENCE OF
   SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WITH LOW RH VALUES...DRY FUELS...AND
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   PERIOD WHEN STRONGEST WINDS/LOWEST RH WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST
   SECTIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL / DRY FUELS
   
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING ERN WA
   EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REACH NRN WY WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE FOR MINIMAL CAPE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY LOW-LEVEL
   AIR MASS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-0.6 IN SUGGESTS
   MOST STORMS WILL BE DRY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AND
   GUSTY/ERRATIC THUNDERSTORMS WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE HIGH-BASED
   CONVECTION. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER LOCALLY HIGHER TERRAIN
   BEFORE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD AT 30-40 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 4 - FAR NRN CA AND S-CENTRAL ORE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL / DRY FUELS
   
   ON WRN PERIPHERY OF 500MB ANTICYCLONE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
   NWD FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL CA INTO S-CENTRAL ORE/FAR
   NRN CA...WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLOW-MOVING...HIGH BASED
   CONVECTIVE CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS
   MOST LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH STORM MOTIONS NEWD AT
   10-15 MPH. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MARGINAL
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.6-0.7 SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING IN THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF
   CONVECTION. LARGE LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY MICROBURSTS IN VICINITY OF
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/31/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310906
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   AND A BROAD...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN MS
   RIVER VALLEY REGION. A LARGE AREA OF RH MINIMUMS LESS THAN 20
   PERCENT WILL ENCOMPASS THE NRN GREAT BASIN...INTERIOR VALLEYS OF
   WA/ORE...AND THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH OR HIGHER
   APPEAR LIMITED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS
   ERN ID AND WRN MT SUGGESTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. HIGHS
   SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF
   WA/ORE...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
   EXPECTED HIGHS THURSDAY.
   
   ...NWRN NV / SERN ORE / CENTRAL AND NRN SIERRA OF CA...
   
   THE 31/00Z ETA INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NWD
   ACROSS THE FAR WRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN SIERRA NEVADA DURING
   THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AIR
   MASS WILL BE RATHER MOIST ACROSS NWRN NV/NERN CA/SERN ORE FOR DRY
   STORMS...HOWEVER...REGION WILL BE MONITORED OWING TO LIKELIHOOD OF
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/31/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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