Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010838
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE NWRN STATES FOR THE LAST
   SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM SRN CA NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. AHEAD
   OF THIS TROUGH...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN/PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF
   THE INTERIOR PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WILL STILL SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
   MIN RH READINGS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
   OVER NERN WA/NRN ID AND WRN MT WHERE ACTIVE FIRES ARE PRESENT. MID
   LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO LIMIT
   THE THREAT FOR ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...INTERIOR PAC NW...
   AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER COASTAL CA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
   ONSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER CA/ORE/WA. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
   20 MPH FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN FAVORS CHANNELING OF LOW
   LEVEL WIND FIELDS. DESPITE LOW RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING
   THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
   
   ...SRN ORE EWD INTO NRN UT/SRN ID...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON YESTERDAY EVENING SOUNDINGS AND
   SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
   EAST OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AID IN
   VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS IS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
   DEEP ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE LIKELIHOOD
   FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND.
   
   ...SRN OK/NW TX...
   DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN OK...PORTIONS OF
   SWRN OK/NWRN TX HAVE SEEN LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FOR OVER A MONTH.
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY EARLY THIS MORNING IN
   RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
   DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND FIELDS AND THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
   THE AREA WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 40S/50S....MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE DAY WILL AID IN
   AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING AOB 20 MPH DURING LOWEST RH
   READING PERIOD.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010947
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
   THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF DAY TWO. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD
   OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO MT
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL AID IN WET
   THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH READINGS WILL
   THEREFORE BE RELATIVELY HIGH FROM THE SW INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOWEST RH READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
   CENTRAL/WRN MT WHERE THE SFC THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE.
   
   ...NRN ID/WRN MT...
   AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING AROUND THE UPPER
   RIDGE...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LIFT COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
   AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
   ID/WRN MT. AT THIS TIME...THE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING
   MAY BE TOO GREAT TO WARRANT A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS FORECAST
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH. IF LATER FORECASTS
   /OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER AMOUNTS AND NOT AS DEEP OF A MID
   LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...THEN THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   GREATER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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