Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ROCKIES IN
   RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COPIOUS
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
   THE INTERIOR WEST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WRN/CENTRAL MT...ERN ID AND WRN WY.
   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF DRY LIGHTNING ALONG WITH A
   TRANSITION OVER TO WET THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR A CRITICAL DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.
   
   ...WRN/CENTRAL MT...WRN WY AND ERN ID...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WITH
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SUPPORT
   HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS OF ERN ID/SWRN MT.
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY...POSING
   A THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTENING
   WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH...WILL
   PROVIDE FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO WET THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW TO NE
   DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING WILL BE LESS THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A CRITICAL OUTLOOK.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020953
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE FLATTENED AND SHIFT EWD INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE FROM
   THE ERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. COOLER/HIGHER RH READINGS
   CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WITH THE
   APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   MOVE ACROSS THE ERN PAC AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
   DAY 2. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...INCREASING MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL
   AID IN DRYING MID LEVELS AND A LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN GREAT
   BASIN/CA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCT-NUMEROUS OVER THE ROCKIES WHERE
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER
   THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WET...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
   AMPLE IN QUANTITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...WY..NRN UT AND ERN ID...
   MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
   FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER  ERN ID/WY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. CLOUD BASES WILL NOT BE OVERLY HIGH /AROUND
   10 KFT AGL/ AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE
   LIMITED. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT...DEEPENING SFC LOW
   OVER NRN WY/SRN MT WILL AID IN SFC PRESSURE INTENSIFYING ALLOWING
   FOR SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. MODEST RH READINGS
   OVER 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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