Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 051306
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2003
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE ERN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN CA COAST INTO THE
   INTERIOR PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH
   WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN...IN A REGION OF
   STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT ON THE SERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
   COMBINATION OF LOW RH READINGS WITH THESE WINDS WILL AID IN CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
   ABSENT OVER MOST OF THE SW/ROCKIES DUE TO LACK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
   FETCH INTO THE REGION WITH PRESENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
   SRN NM. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE PAC
   NW/NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME OF
   THESE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/WRN MT SWD INTO WRN WY
   ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NV AND WRN UT AND SERN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
   MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT.
   
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SFC LOW PRESSURE
   DEEPENING OVER WCENTRAL NV IN RESPONSE TO A INCREASING SWLY FLOW
   OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS. EXPECT THIS SFC LOW TO SHIFT NEWD INTO
   NCENTRAL NV/SCENTRAL ID THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO NEWD
   MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A BAND OF
   MOD-STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SERN PORTION OF
   THIS SYSTEM...OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN. LACK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
   TO THE AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS AIDED IN A DRYING TREND
   IN THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR FIRE DANGERS TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT
   OF THE LACK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MIN RH READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
   BE AROUND 15 PERCENT. NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST
   15 KFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF THE BELT OF
   STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE SFC. SWLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
   10 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
   THUS...POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. WITH ALL THESE VARIABLE IN
   PLACE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THIS AREA.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP TODAY
   OVER THE MTNS OF ID/ERN ORE AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
   ERN WA SWD INTO WRN ID. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FROM SRN OREGON AHEAD
   OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
   ALLOW FOR MOSTLY WET THUNDERSTORMS TO ERN ORE/WA AND ID THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD INTO
   WRN/CENTRAL MT...WRN WY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD...EXPECT MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE LESS ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A
   THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR NOT
   OUTLOOKING THIS AREA IS RECENT WETTING RAINS ALLOWING FOR MARGINAL
   FIRE DANGERS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/05/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051021
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0521 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2003
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE ERN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON
   DAY 1 WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS A
   STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR DRY LIGHTNING. A BELT OF MOD-STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
   QUASISTATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CA NEWD INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM...ANOTHER
   DAY OF STRONG WINDS/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE ERN GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
   SRN AZ/NM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION SHIFTING SLOWLY
   NEWD INTO NRN NM SUPPORTING INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THIS AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN ID/ERN NV...WRN UT AND FAR
   NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH...MIN RH READINGS
   AROUND 15 PERCENT
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MOD SWLY FLOW WILL AID
   IN SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   HOURS. WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE FOR MIN RH READINGS WILL
   REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT PROVIDING FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR POOR
   RH RECOVERY.
   
   ...WRN AND CENTRAL MT/NWRN WY...
   AHEAD OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MID LEVEL LIFT
   WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN
   WY/WRN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL
   SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH BASED
   CONVECTION. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE THAT PURELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO FORECAST
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/05/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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