Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110917
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0417 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA/SERN ORE/CNTRL ID/SW MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN DAKOTAS/NE WY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SFC WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
   IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS WA/ORE/ID TODAY.
   THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ONSHORE.
   HOWEVER UPPER DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND
   THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE SFC WINDS...AND RESULT IN
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
   A PORTION OF THE WEST. THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL
   BEGIN TO ELONGATE AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY
   BEGINS TO RETROGRADE AND EXTEND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
   ERN TX BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY/COLD FRONT WILL
   EXTEND ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE A
   SFC TROUGH FORMS ACROSS ERN MT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MAINLY NORTH
   OF MT...IN CANADA...BUT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DRAWN INTO
   THIS SYSTEM.
   
   BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS WILL BE FROM SERN
   ID/WRN MT/UT AND AREAS EAST. POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   ADDRESSED BELOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NERN CA/SERN ORE/CNTRL ID/SW MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH LOCALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS / HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S / MINIMUM RH VALUES 20
   PERCENT OR BELOW / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER OBSERVATIONS...
   
   FORECAST WINDS IN THE 600-500MB LAYER FROM THE ETA MODEL SUGGEST
   THAT AT LEAST 35-40 KT OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
   OUTLOOK AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
   SOLUTION...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE
   TO TAP INTO 30-40 KT WINDS AND MIX SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM LOWER.
   SUNDAY'S OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 15-25 MPH...WITH
   SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH REPORTED IN THE BOISE FORECAST AREA.
   SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
   GENERALLY BE 10-15 PERCENT...BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW 10
   PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
   80S AND 90S...WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 EXPECTED IN
   THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 
   
   FINALLY...RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF FIRE DANGER CLASS SHOW HIGH TO
   EXTREME VALUES...AN INDICATOR THAT FUELS ARE VERY DRY. DRY LIGHTNING
   IS MOST LIKELY IN SW/WRN MT...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
   AROUND .5" TO .6"...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER VALUES OF
   CAPE. FARTHER WEST...ACROSS ERN ID AND UT...STORMS WILL HAVE A
   GREATER LIKLIHOOD OF MORE WETTING RAINS. REGARDLESS...ANY DRY
   LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL WORSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - WRN DAKOTAS/NE WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH LOCALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH / HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S /
   MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT / HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
   DANGER OBSERVATIONS...
   
   STRONG SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO A
   DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
   MPH ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH. MEANWHILE MINIMUM RH
   VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT WITH TEMPS IN THE
   80S/90S. FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS ARE VERY HIGH OR
   HIGH...SUGGESTING THAT FUELS ARE DRY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS
   EXPECTED...THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN GRASSFIRES WILL BE HIGHER BY
   THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS OR
   NERN WY. HOWEVER...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...GIVEN LOW K INDEX VALUES. ANY
   STORMS WHICH DO FORM...MAY CONTAIN SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 08/11/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111027
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN CA/CNTRL NV/WRN UT/ERN ID...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN DAKOTAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXTENDED MODELS NOW SHOW THAT THE UPPER LOW NEAR VANCOUVER MAY
   CONTINUE BUILDING SWD BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
   UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY STILL BE OFF THE COAST...BUT BROAD SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH 40-50 KTS OF FLOW ACROSS CA AND THE GREAT
   BASIN. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE
   UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
   ESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM MO TO TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE E/NE OF
   THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA BY TUESDAY
   EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...EXTENDING FROM NW
   ND INTO ERN MT/SRN MT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL FORM
   OVER WY...AND ALL OF THESE SFC FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH THE
   UPPER FORCING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND SAWTOOTH MTNS ON TUESDAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN CA/CNTRL NV/WRN UT/ERN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   / MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT / MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S /
   CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...
   
   STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SFC WINDS AGAIN ON
   TUESDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
   GUSTS TO 40 MPH. IN ADDITION...RECENT FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS
   INDICATE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME VALUES...AND THESE ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 10
   PERCENT...WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NCEP
   SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST OUTPUT SUGGEST FOSBERG FIRE WEATHER
   INDEX VALUES MAY BE AS HIGH AS 70 OR 80 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS
   OUTLOOK MAY BE UPGRADED TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL IF CURRENT WEATHER
   TRENDS CONTINUE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - WRN DAKOTAS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   / MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT/MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S/90S
   
   STRONG SLY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM IN SASKATCHEWAN ON TUESDAY AFTN. SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-25
   MPH ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL
   BELOW 20 PERCENT...AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE
   10-15 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH
   VALUES...AND STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN
   FIRES. THE LATEST FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
   DRIEST FUELS ARE ACROSS WRN ND AND NW SD.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 08/11/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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