Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180837
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2003
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SMALL AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SWRN WY WILL MOVE TO SERN WY
   BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FARTHER EAST...WARM TEMPERATURES
   WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS STRONG UPPER
   RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER MO.  
   
   WESTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED A DRIER AIRMASS INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE 
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...RESTRICTING DIURNAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS EAST
   OF A CNTRL MT...ERN UT...WRN AZ LINE.  MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 10
   PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FROM ERN OR/ERN WA...THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN...AND INTO WRN AZ. BUT LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
   ELIMINATES THE THREAT OF LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.  
   
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE
   DAKOTAS...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
   NE...KS..AND THE PANHANDLES OF OK AND TX.  VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
   /NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES/ WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN KS...WRN OK...AND WRN TX TODAY. 
   STRONG HEATING WILL ALSO INCREASE SLY SFC WINDS TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THUS...COMBINED PARAMETERS APPROACH BUT NEVER EXCEED
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS OVER THE WRN PLAINS TODAY.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 08/18/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180926
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2003
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY PUSHES A SLOW MOVING
   CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM SERN WY TO CNTRL NE DURING THE FORECAST
   PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ/NM AND IL/IN.
   
   RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
   TWO DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND
   A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL NE...WRN KS...INTO THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN FALLS BELOW 10 PERCENT
   OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST...BUT THE LARGE SCALE FLOW SUPPORTS
   GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
   
   A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE WRN PLAINS...WITH MINIMUM
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN PREDICTED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FROM
   CNTRL NE TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   
   ...CNTRL NE...WRN KS...PANHANDLES OF TX/OK...
   AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
   TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLY SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
   20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THUS...THE COMBINATION OF MINIMUM
   HUMIDITY AND SURFACE WINDS COULD EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST 10-HOUR DEAL FUEL MOISTURE ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 5 PERCENT
   THROUGH THE WRN HIGH PLAINS.  BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE FOR
   A LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
   EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE AFTERNOON SLY WINDS...A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 08/18/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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