Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060823
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2003
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE SEWD AND INTO THE PAC
   NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
   WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING ALONG THE ORE/WA COAST AT 07/00Z WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
   CASCADE MTNS BY 07/12Z. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIFT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   AID IN SCT-NUMEROUS WET THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
   ROCKIES.
   
   ...ERN WA/ORE...NRN ID...
   WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   INTENSIFY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER ERN WA/ORE DURING THE
   PERIOD. INCREASING SWLY DOWNSLOPE LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   ACROSS ERN ORE/WA. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
   HIGHER GUSTS IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN/HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE
   FOUND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
   MAY AID IN ISOLATED-SCT HIGH BASED CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON ALONG
   THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENOUGH
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
   AND WHETHER ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE IN PLACE TO LIMIT DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...THAT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE
   ISSUED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/06/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060948
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2003
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESEWD...AND EXTEND FROM
   NCENTRAL MT SWWD INTO NRN NV BY 08/12Z. COMBINED WITH A WARM/DRY
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP AT THE SFC FROM ERN ORE/NRN NV NEWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL ID AND
   SWRN MT. EAST OF THE SFC LOW/LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
   MT/WY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
   MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. MIN RH READINGS AROUND 30 PERCENT SHOULD
   LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THIS AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE TO BE DRY. A GREATER THREAT FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WET VARIETY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...NRN NV/SERN ORE...WRN/CENTRAL ID AND WRN MT...
   INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS/COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...ALONG WITH WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT
   NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOWER LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY AN INCREASE OF SFC
   WINDS IS ANTICIPATED BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
   LOSS OF THE MORNING INVERSION. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25
   MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
   ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
   ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN RH VALUES. MARGINAL MIN RH READINGS AROUND
   20 PERCENT FORECAST WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA
   ATTM.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN MT...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE AREA ON DAY 1 WILL LIKELY
   PROVIDE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER 
   CENTRAL/ERN MT. DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY IN
   PLACE...VERY WARM/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CLOUD
   BASES GREATER THAN 10 KFT AGL. ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION IS
   ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE
   OVER CENTRAL MT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE MID-UPPER LEVEL
   FORCING WILL INCREASE. IF LATER OBSERVED/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA...THEN THERE WOULD BE
   A NEED TO RE-EVALUATE FOR A CRITICAL DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/06/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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