Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070846
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2003
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG WIND FIELDS AT MID LEVELS
   WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR PAC
   NW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM
   THE CASCADES AT 07/12Z TO AN AXIS FROM NRN NV INTO WRN MT BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD. SCT MAINLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
   THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SERIES OF WEAKER SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS
   WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   SCT-NUMEROUS WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH
   OF THIS AREA. A LEAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND. GUSTY SLY
   WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL.
   
   ...INTERIOR PAC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
   ...SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR NRN CA TO NRN ID
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL BE MIN RH READINGS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 15-20
   PERCENT...OR JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID IN SCT WET THUNDERSTORMS...AND/OR CLOUDY
   SKIES/POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE FRONTAL
   PASSAGE ITSELF IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN MT...WRN ND...
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD OUT OF WY...ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   OVERALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW GIVEN PRESENCE OF
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...ND/SD...
   SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
   MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. DESPITE VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 90S...INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL
   FLOW WILL AID IN RISING DEWPOINTS AND THUS MIN RH READINGS ABOVE
   CRITICAL LEVELS /25 PERCENT/ DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
   SUSTAINED WINDS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/07/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2003
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM A
   WRN MT/NRN NV LINE AT 08/12Z TO A ERN MT/SRN NV LINE BY 09/12Z. SCT
   MOSTLY WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD
   FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES. ISOLATED POTENTIALLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
   LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MT/WRN ND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING HOURS. GUSTY SWLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...WITH
   THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING FROM NRN AZ NEWD INTO
   CENTRAL WY. HOWEVER...MODERATE FIRE DANGERS AND MARGINAL RH READINGS
   WILL MITIGATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER
   EAST...INCREASING SLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIXING OF
   INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
   
   ...ERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD...WITH WINDS INCREASING FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE DAY. MIN RH READINGS PRIOR TO
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT...WITH SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER READINGS IN THE MTNS. ALONG WITH ONLY MODERATE FIRE DANGERS
   ANTICIPATED DUE TO ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS LIKELY ON DAY 1...THIS
   AREA WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...ERN MT/NERN WY...WRN ND/NWRN SD...
   SFC LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN MT IN RESPONSE TO THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE
   85-90 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL PROVIDE FOR
   CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES AOA 10 KFT AGL. DEGREE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   THAT WILL BE PRESENT AND SPEED OF TRANSITION OF CONVECTION FROM
   DRY-WET REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.
   
   ...ERN ND/SD AND WRN MN...
   INCREASING SFC SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN
   RESPONSE TO MIXING AND PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL JET. SUSTAINED WINDS
   FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY BE LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN
   MN. CURRENT FORECAST DEWPOINT FIELDS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOWER
   DEWPOINTS MOVING NWD FROM MO/NEB ON DAY 1...WITH READINGS IN THE
   40S. COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
   80S...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.  AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/07/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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