Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070736
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2003
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS COASTAL WA
   AND ORE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK STEADILY EWD TO NRN ID BY
   TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN MT THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL MT SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND
   INTO S-CENTRAL ORE BY 08/03Z. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
   MIX TO THE SURFACE AND INCREASE SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
   FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES REGION LATER
   TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
   OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT...FAR ERN
   ID...AND NWRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / DRY FUELS / MARGINALLY LOW RH
   VALUES / FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
   
   WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL
   FLOW AND VERTICAL MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THERMAL RIDGING
   MOVING EWD AND BROKEN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...MINIMUM RH VALUES
   WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION
   WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
   HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST
   SEVERAL DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS. IN COMBINATION
   WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRE WEATHER
   PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
   FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COMBINED WITH GOOD RH
   RECOVERY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD END QUICKLY
   AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/07/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070814
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2003
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL SPREAD INLAND
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW WILL TRACK FROM W-CENTRAL MT TO THE
   WRN DAKOTAS BY 09/00Z. 
   
   A 700MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
   MUCH OF INTERIOR CA...WHERE RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT WILL BE
   WIDESPREAD...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL BE
   THE RULE UNDER WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY
   SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...WRN SD AND WRN NEB...
   
   THE ETA AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LEE TROUGH FROM THE
   ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO ERN CO DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
   WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FRONTAL IN CHARACTER
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS ERN
   MT/WRN ND WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AXIS OF LOW RH
   VALUES /15-25 PERCENT/ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN NEB WHERE
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW /IN THE 20S AND 30S/ WITH
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
   80S. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH NWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE FROM THE BLACK HILLS SWD INTO WRN NEB DURING THE DAYTIME
   HOURS. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE EVENT MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
   SURFACE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/07/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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