Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070736
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2003
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS COASTAL WA
AND ORE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK STEADILY EWD TO NRN ID BY
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN MT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL MT SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND
INTO S-CENTRAL ORE BY 08/03Z. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE AND INCREASE SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES REGION LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT...FAR ERN
ID...AND NWRN WY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / DRY FUELS / MARGINALLY LOW RH
VALUES / FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND VERTICAL MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THERMAL RIDGING
MOVING EWD AND BROKEN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS. IN COMBINATION
WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COMBINED WITH GOOD RH
RECOVERY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD END QUICKLY
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS.
..BANACOS.. 10/07/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070814
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2003
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW WILL TRACK FROM W-CENTRAL MT TO THE
WRN DAKOTAS BY 09/00Z.
A 700MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
MUCH OF INTERIOR CA...WHERE RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL BE
THE RULE UNDER WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
...WRN SD AND WRN NEB...
THE ETA AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LEE TROUGH FROM THE
ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO ERN CO DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FRONTAL IN CHARACTER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS ERN
MT/WRN ND WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AXIS OF LOW RH
VALUES /15-25 PERCENT/ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN NEB WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW /IN THE 20S AND 30S/ WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH NWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE BLACK HILLS SWD INTO WRN NEB DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE EVENT MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
..BANACOS.. 10/07/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home