Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090713
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2003
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN
   ROCKIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM W-CENTRAL MT
   SWWD INTO NRN CA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG BELT OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
   BE THE FIRE WEATHER FOCUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL SYSTEM
   WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE DAY...WITH AIR MASS REMAINING
   SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM S-CENTRAL MT/NRN
   WY SWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD FROM OFF THE NRN CA/SRN ORE COAST EWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL ID INTO WRN MT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN ID...WRN/CENTRAL WY...NRN
   UT...AND FAR ERN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / DRY FUELS
   
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZES BELOW STRONG MID-LEVEL JET. VERTICAL MIXING WILL
   ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RH MINIMUMS AROUND 20 PERCENT. SEVERE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS PER NOAA/CPC DROUGHT MONITOR AND ONLY VERY LIGHT
   RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS SUGGEST AREAS OF DRY FUELS AND
   POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FORECAST
   TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER AREA AFTER SUNSET...BUT REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG AT HIGH
   ELEVATIONS AS BELT OF STRONG 500MB FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
   THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NRN AND CENTRAL CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH VALUES / LOCALLY STRONG WINDS / DRY FUELS
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SRN OREGON BEHIND SYNOPTIC FRONT
   WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN THE N-S SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ACROSS NRN/N-CENTRAL CA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT
   WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY
   RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY STRONG NLY SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
   FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25
   PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
   VALLEYS OF CA IN THE LOW 80S. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN AREAS
   WHERE WINDS ARE STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RESULTING IN
   LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
   MORNING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/09/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090813
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2003
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL PROGRESS SEWD...WITH A
   SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...AND WWD INTO CENTRAL CA BY 11/00Z. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
   FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NRN
   ROCKIES REGION AND NRN GREAT BASIN. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL BUILD EWD INTO NRN ID/WRN MT BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW REGIME AT
   500MB...WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EWD FROM CENTRAL ORE TO THE WRN DAKOTAS
   DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...A 700MB
   THERMAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM SRN CA NEWD ACROSS CO AND INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NRN AND CENTRAL CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH VALUES / LOCALLY STRONG WINDS / DRY
   FUELS
   
   CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CA AS NLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS A RESULT OF N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
   ESPECIALLY THE N-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. LOCAL NLY WINDS OF
   15-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES/LOCALLY
   HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY...COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RH MINIMUMS OF 8-15 PERCENT ACROSS
   INTERIOR NRN AND CENTRAL CA. IN MANY OF THESE AREAS...RH VALUES WILL
   BE 10 PERCENT LOWER COMPARED TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERY MAY CONTINUE
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PROLONGING FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN WY...NERN UT...AND NWRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...CONTINUED WARM LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
   COMBINED WITH VERTICAL MIXING OF MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-30 MPH FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATION
   LOCATIONS. THE STEEP...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AT LOW-LEVELS AND
   STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOW-LEVEL DRYING...WITH RH
   MINIMUMS OF 15-20 PERCENT LIKELY ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA. COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS IN SOME AREAS...AMBIENT WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING PERIOD...PRIOR TO WINDS SUBSIDING IN MOST AREAS DURING
   THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/09/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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