Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100813
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2003
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN AND CENTRAL
   ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE SEWD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND EXTEND FROM SRN
   NV ENEWD INTO WRN KS BY 11/12Z. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH
   READINGS AND ANTECEDENT LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL ALLOW FOR CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AHEAD
   OF THIS COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT...A
   LIGHT-MOD OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NRN
   CA. HOWEVER...THE SHORT DURATION OF MOSTLY NON-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUANCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
   COUNTRY WILL SEE SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN WY/NRN CO AND NERN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   40 MPH / MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   
   MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WERE ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING
   ACROSS MUCH OF WRN WY/NERN UT...WHICH HAS PROVIDED FOR POOR RH
   RECOVERY. ANTECEDENT LONG TERM DROUGHT HAS ONLY BEEN EXACERBATED BY
   WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY. A COMBINATION
   OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING/STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD AND
   WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH A LACK OF
   CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO THE REGION DURING
   THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
   MPH WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RH READINGS IN
   THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
   PERCENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SFC TEMPERATURES. A COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 11/00Z...PROVIDING FOR A
   SHARP WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DESPITE INCREASING RH
   READINGS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LACK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
   WITH STRONG WINDS AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF
   CONTINUATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND FRONTAL
   PASSAGE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END FROM NW-SE
   OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE AND RH READINGS RECOVER AS SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
   
   ...NRN CA...
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
   MOVING INTO SWRN ORE. AS THIS HIGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
   THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NLY WINDS
   WILL BECOME NELY. INITIALLY MOD-STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING
   N-S ACROSS NRN CA WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH OVER
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF POOR RH RECOVERY EARLY THIS MORNING
   WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 30-40 PERCENT WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/10/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100911
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2003
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD INTO
   THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND...STRONG TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
   PAC NW TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 2. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEST...BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER
   TROUGH PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
   WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE SUSTAINED
   WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW
   WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   SCT PRECIPITATION TO THE SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE
   LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. UNLIKE AREAS FARTHER
   NORTHEAST...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH OR BEHIND THE
   FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA THAN WHAT
   WILL EXIST ON DAY 1...MIN RH READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
   DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
   
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES...
   INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING
   INTO THE PAC NW WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH
   OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
   LIKELY OVER WRN MT/NRN ID. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE AREA ON DAY ONE AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES DUE TO COPIOUS
   CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/10/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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