Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2003
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE OF THE TROUGH...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
   RESIDE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RH
   READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES
   DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   WHERE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST. MODERATE WINDS AND VERY LOW
   RH READINGS WILL PROVIDE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
   PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN. UPPER RIDGING OVER
   THE DESERT SW/SRN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS TO MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE NATION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NCENTRAL/NWRN CO...SERN ID...NERN
   NV NRN UT AND SWRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WITH MIN RH
   READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT
   
   ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
   THE PERIOD. SEVERAL DAYS OF  MODERATE WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW RH
   READINGS HAVE LED TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA. MIN RH
   READINGS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE 8-12 PERCENT RANGE. ANOTHER DAY OF
   MILD TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG WITH VERY
   LOW DEWPOINTS READINGS FROM 0 TO 10 DEGREES EVIDENT ON RECENT
   SURFACE ANALYSIS...WILL AID IN SIMILAR MIN RH READINGS TODAY.
   ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
   NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...POOR RH RECOVERY LAST NIGHT AND MODERATE
   SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
   OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE MORNING WHEN STRONG MIXING BREAKS
   NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
   IN LOWER ELEVATIONS SHORTLY AFTER 15/00Z. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD
   REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
   THE MTNS OF NRN CO WHEN MID LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
   
   ...OTHER AREAS OF CONSIDERATION...
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN VERY LOW RH READINGS FROM 6 TO
   12 PERCENT OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   AVERAGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
   WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
   TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET.
   
   ...SERN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20-30 MPH OVER VA/MD/DE CLOSER TO
   THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM...TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF
   THE SERN STATES. VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. THESE READINGS MAY FALL SOME DURING THE DAY...
   PROVIDING FOR MIN RH READINGS FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
   AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO 70S. DESPITE THE LOW RH READINGS AND
   MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND A LACK OF SHORT OR
   LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WARRANTS NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD WHILE
   SLOWLY WEAKENING DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD
   OF NEXT ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
   FROM 15 TO 20 MPH TO OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
   FROM ERN NM NWD INTO ERN CO. MIN RH READINGS WILL BE AROUND 20
   PERCENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/15/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150948
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2003
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WILL BREAKDOWN AS A STRONG
   UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
   OVER THE PLAINS STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PLAGUED PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL DECREASE IN
   RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
   DECREASE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN RH READINGS AROUND
   15 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
   INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
   BETWEEN THIS LOW AND SWD MOVING/BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
   THE NRN PLAINS WILL AID IN MODERATE NLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
   SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR WITH MIN RH READINGS AROUND 30 PERCENT
   WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON DAY 2 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN/MID
   ATLANTIC STATES. OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL
   FLOW WILL AID IN INCREASING WINDS/WARMING TEMPERATURES.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   HOW RAPIDLY THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON DAY
   2...WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST AND INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR WITH  A
   SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAY 2. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD ALLOW FOR NLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH TO
   DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM NERN
   NM/TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS/ERN CO. DRY AIR BEHIND THE SFC LOW
   ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT LOW
   RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT. ANY INCREASE IN FORECAST MID
   LEVEL WINDS/LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT REASON
   FOR LATER ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO OFFSHORE OF THE
   CAROLINAS BY 16/00Z. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER
   NRN/CENTRAL FL DURING THE PERIOD...WHERE SUSTAINED ENELY WINDS
   AROUND 15 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. LOW RH READINGS FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT
   WILL AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR SE...WITH LOWER RH
   READINGS OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL ON DAY 2 THAN THOSE ON DAY 1 AS DRIER
   AIR FILTERS SWWD INTO THE STATE. LACK OF SHORT-LONG TERM DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS/RH READINGS WILL PRECLUDE
   AN OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/15/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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