Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2003
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE
   NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS NWD...WELL ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT OVER THE DESERT SW WILL 
   BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. NWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE
   MAIN BELT OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE
   OF WINDS TODAY OVER GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT AN INCREASE
   OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED
   AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
   THIS LOW...A MODERATE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN LOCALLY
   WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD
   AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RH READINGS AND LIGHT WINDS
   TO THE SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MOST OF WRN KS/ERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   40 MPH / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT
   
   AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AMPLIFIES AND
   MOVES SEWD...LOW LEVEL SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
   AID IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
   AS AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS.
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF A MID LEVEL
   40-50 MPH SPEED MAX OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL AID IN
   SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. VERY DRY LOW
   LEVELS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL AID IN
   CRITICALLY LOW RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH FROM N-S BY
   EARLY EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.
   
   ...SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...
   NWLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING LASTING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAX. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
   MIN RH READINGS FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
   
   ...CENTRAL MT...
   INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING UPPER
   RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH OVER ERN
   MT AND SASKATCHEWAN. SWLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY TO
   THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
   TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS WHICH WILL BE AFTER 17/00Z AND LACK OF
   HIGH FIRE DANGERS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
   FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/16/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161006
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2003
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER
   TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE HIGH
   PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE ERN
   HALF OF THE NATION. BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
   ALONG WITH RAPID WARMING TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS WILL GIVE NEAR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/FRONT
   RANGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ASSOCIATED LOW RH READINGS
   WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND PLAINS STATES.
   
   ....CENTRAL AND ERN MT...
   STRONG SUSTAINED DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM 20 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH DAY 2 IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
   PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   OVER WRN WY/ERN ID...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/STRONG MID LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND  DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 20S/30S WILL PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. LACK OF HIGH FIRE DANGERS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD
   LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT POTENTIAL.
   
   ...ERN WY...WRN SD/ND...
   WLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER OVER MUCH OF ERN WY/WRN
   SD DUE TO PRESENCE SOUTH OF MAIN MID LEVEL JET MAX. SUSTAINED WINDS
   FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MIN RH READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
   RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. OVER WRN ND...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
   AS STRONG AS IN ERN MT...BUT MIN RH READINGS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
   FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT PRECLUDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/16/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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