Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230741
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND ERN MT / NRN WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY AS A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS HIGH WINDS AND LITTLE MOISTURE WITH A COLD
   FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL EXPAND SWD INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING...REINFORCING THE DRY
   AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NRN CA. 
   FURTHER E....LOW RH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN
   U.S. BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL AND ERN MT / NRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WLY WINDS / SEVERE DROUGHT /
   MARGINALLY LOW RH
   
   A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT
   WILL BEGIN OVER W CENTRAL MT AND WILL END UP ALONG THE MT/DAKOTA
   BORDER BY EARLY EVENING.  STRONG WLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   AVERAGING 25-35 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THE HIGHEST
   SPEEDS WILL BE ALONG ERN SLOPES WHERE 45-55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
   RH VALUES WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW AT 20-25 PERCENT DURING PEAK
   HEATING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SERN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WLY WINDS / MDT TO HIGH HAINES / LOW RH
   
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRAZE THIS PORTION OF THE STATE...BUT
   WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING STRONG WLY WINDS TO THE SURFACE.  A VERY DRY
   AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.  BY AFTERNOON...DRY AND UNSTABLE LOW
   TO MID LEVELS WILL DEVELOP WITH MDT HAINES.  DRY WLY WINDS OF 20-30
   MPH WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WHILE RH LEVELS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
   MIDDLE TEENS.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING
   THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL CAUSE WLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY AT 20-30
   MPH.  GOOD RH RECOVERY AND WEAKER WINDS ARE LIKELY BY FRI MORNING AS
   TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 30S F.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY / N AND NELY
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS
   
   INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH THE HIGH TO THE NE WILL CAUSE
   INCREASING N AND NELY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NRN
   CA...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
   AND COASTAL RANGE.  DURING THE DAY...NLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
   EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW RH AROUND 15 PERCENT INLAND.  STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND VERY HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE LOW
   LEVELS AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
   NE OVERNIGHT DUE TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE AND AS A RESULT...RH RECOVERY
   IS EXPECTED WILL BE POOR IN SPOTS.
   
   ...ERN SOUTH ID...
   IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
   DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RH LEVELS WILL BE
   LOWEST ALONG THE ID/WY BORDER...WITH MIN VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT
   DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND GOOD RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WITH COLD
   TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS WILL BE MARGINAL...EXTREME DROUGHT
   PERSISTS ALONG WITH MANY FIRES NOTED ON SATELLITE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/23/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230816
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
   PLAINS STATES BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR.  STRONG
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS
   STATES.  A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SW NWWD
   THROUGH CENTRAL CA WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
   
   ...NRN AND SRN CA...
   INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE NIGHTLY
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON W SLOPES OVER NRN CA AS WELL AS SRN CA.  LOW RH
   VALUES DURING THE DAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS WILL RECOVERY POORLY IN
   THESE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS.  WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG
   THROUGH SAT MORNING...BUT SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   APPEAR LIKELY OUT OF THE E AND NE.
   
   ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   IT WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY FRIDAY IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME.  NWLY
   WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FROM ERN MT INTO
   THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH RH VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT AND COOL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S F.  FURTHER SOUTH OVER NE AND
   KS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER FROM 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY WITH
   COMPARABLE RH LEVELS DURING THE DAYTIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/23/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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