Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250841
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...REINFORCING OFFSHORE/
DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME ACROSS WRN CA. ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE
COOLER/DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / DRY FUELS
SANTA ANA/DOWNSLOPE WIND SCENARIO WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN
CA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PROGRESSIVELY BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND RESULTANT INCREASE
IN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CULMINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY GIVEN MARKED INCREASE OF
MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. SUSTAINED
NE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS ADJACENT
TO CANYONS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. RH VALUES
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING WILL BE AROUND/BELOW 10 PERCENT...WITH
VERY POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. AMPLE INSOLATION...RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD WARMTH...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL FURTHER PROMOTE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIORS.
...NRN CA...
MODERATE DOWNSLOPE N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN AREAS OF CHANNELED TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS
IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT
WILL BE COUPLED WITH POOR RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
..GUYER.. 10/25/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251001
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION S/SE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WITH STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING
THE OFF SHORE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS WRN/SRN CA. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S./GULF
COAST STATES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / DRY FUELS
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN SANTA ANA WIND SCENARIO ACROSS SRN CA
THROUGH SUNDAY OWING TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GIVEN EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS/SUBSIDING AIRMASS...SUSTAINED NE WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS NEAR CANYONS AND PASSES. RECORD WARMTH AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS/FUELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING LIKELY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ADDITION TO VERY POOR RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
...NRN CA...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ACROSS NRN CA ON
SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE WINDS SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES AGAIN AS LOW AS 10-15 PERCENT AND POOR RH RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.
..GUYER.. 10/25/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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