Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270913
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CST MON OCT 27 2003
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN
   TODAY...ALLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
   RESULTANT OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW THROUGH WRN/SRN CA AND THE SW
   DESERTS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
   TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TUESDAY...YIELDING VERY
   GUSTY NW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / LOW RH / DRY FUELS
   
   MODERATE DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA
   THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING GREAT BASIN
   HIGH PRESSURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD YIELD A GRADUAL DOWNWARD
   TREND IN SANTA ANA WIND SCENARIO LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. PEAK WINDS
   DURING THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NE
   WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-30 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
   40 MPH ADJACENT TO FAVORED CANYONS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. ALTHOUGH
   INFLUENCE OF BROAD SCALE SANTA ANA WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO
   TUESDAY...EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS/FUELS...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
   WARMTH...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE...YIELDING A CONTINUANCE OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS/BEHAVIORS. MINIMUM RH VALUES COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING
   WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE
   COAST...WITH VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL CA...
   DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. NEVERTHELESS UNSEASONABLY
   WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN AREAS AWAY
   FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...COINCIDENT WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH
   VALUES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG NW/W WINDS -- 25-40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS -- ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY AND WRN DAKOTAS TODAY
   AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF SRN CANADA. LIMITING FACTORS FOR
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S/60S/LOWER 70S AND CLOUD COVER/WIDELY
   SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL
   ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...RH
   VALUES AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WY DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/27/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 271100
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 AM CST MON OCT 27 2003
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
   LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WESTERLY ONSHORE
   FLOW WILL ENSUE/INCREASE ACCORDINGLY ALONG THE PACIFIC WEST COAST...
   INCLUDING WRN/SRN CA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE A LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WITH TRAILING FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CNTRL
   PLAINS.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE SANTA ANA WINDS MAY LINGER TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
   SRN CA...HOWEVER NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS DAYS PREVIOUS. SUSTAINED NE
   WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN AND ADJACENT TO
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT BROAD SCALE
   WINDS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS GREAT
   BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT DECAYS.
   AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH
   UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
   COAST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
   ACROSS SRN CA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE SANTA ANA/OFFSHORE WIND
   REGIME AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN CA
   INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/27/2003
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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