Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240939
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND A BROAD
   UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTER OF THE
   COUNTRY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
   MODERATE IN STRENGTH...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL
   AND MIN RH READINGS WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
   ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL ENTRENCHED OVER
   THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING FOR LOW RH READINGS TO FL.
   HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS HIGH ARE ANTICIPATED
   TO LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS/FAR SRN ROCKIES...
   ASSISTED BY THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER NRN
   MEXICO EARLY IN THE DAY...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD FROM
   CENTRAL/WRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE DEEP MIXING
   EXPECTED BEHIND A SFC DRYLINE RESIDING OVER WRN TX...LIMITED
   STRENGTH IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED
   SWLY WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH DURING MOST OF THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG WITH MODERATE MIN RH READINGS FROM 20 TO 25
   PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AS A RESULT OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
   55-65 DEGREE RANGE DUE TO COPIOUS CLOUD COVER...A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER ERN NM/FAR WRN TX.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   INCIPIENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS. BEHIND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT..EXPECT MODERATE
   SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
   THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
   50S...AND CONSEQUENTLY MIN RH READINGS FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS
   SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO
   EAST...AS MID LEVEL WINDS DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
   AID IN RAPID RH RECOVERY BY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...FL...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY OVER THE ERN
   GULF OF MEXICO. LOW DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD
   BE MAINTAINED OVER MOST OF THE PENINSULA TODAY DUE TO THE CLOSE
   PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. DESPITE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
   SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MIN RH READINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE AOB
   CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE
   AIRMASS...VERY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/24/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240941
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ESEWD ALONG AND
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL RESIDE OVER
   THE CENTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS CROSSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
   LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AGAIN OVER THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT  AS
   IN PREVIOUS DAYS...RELATIVELY COOL /ALBEIT ABOVE AVERAGE/
   TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR FL ON DAY ONE...WILL SHIFT EWD. DESPITE
   INCREASING SSWLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
   FL...RAPID MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED TO PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR FL AND SRN GA/SC.
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SRN ROCKIES...
   A STRONGLY DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
   SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT/LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
   DURING THE PERIOD. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH STEEP
   LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINED WINDS WELL IN
   EXCESS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR
   WRN HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE OF ERN NM/CO AND WRN KS/TX. AT THIS
   TIME... DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS...LOW LEVELS ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM ON
   DAY ONE. THUS MIN RH READINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE AOA 20 PERCENT
   DURING THE PERIOD. IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE LOWER DEWPOINTS OR
   WARMER TEMPERATURES AND/OR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE COLD
   FRONT OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THEN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WOULD NEED TO
   BE CONSIDERED FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/24/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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