Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310811
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2004
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   ERN CONUS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
   CENTRAL CANADA SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. A FAST
   MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE
   ESEWD TO ERN NM BY 01/12Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND WRN TX DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 
   FIRE WEATHER FOCUS WILL REST WITH THIS MOBILE TROUGH IN THE SWRN
   CONUS AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND MODERATELY WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SERN AZ...SRN NM...AND SWRN/FAR WRN TX...
   
   THE 00Z ETA/GFS RUNS INDICATE THAT 500MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
   50-70 KTS ACROSS SERN AZ...SRN NM...AND SWRN/FAR WRN TX WITH
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE INDUCED DRY WLY LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS BELOW
   20F...COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING. AS
   WINDS INCREASE ALOFT...MIXING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD RESULT
   IN SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
   HIGHER WINDS LIKELY IN THE DAVIS MTNS OF SWRN TX. THESE CONDITIONS
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT FROM SERN
   AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WEST/SWRN TX. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY
   BE TEMPERATURE...AS THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF REGION AND CLOUD
   COVER INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE 60S AT LOWER ELEVATION SITES APPEAR
   LIKELY. IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON FUEL
   CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LESS THAN A CRITICAL
   RISK FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 01/31/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310904
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2004
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ERN NM/WRN TX AT 01/12Z
   WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS OK DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONG GRADIENT
   FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SWRN TX
   THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SUNDAY /500MB WINDS 65-75 KT/. MEANWHILE...AT THE
   SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE RED RIVER...ALONG
   STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NERN OK SWWD INTO WRN TX.
   PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRY AIR MASS
   FROM THE SWRN CONUS ADVECTING EWD ACROSS SWRN INTO S-CENTRAL TX
   SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ...SWRN AND S-CENTRAL TX...
   
   WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF SWRN TX
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND FIELDS
   ALOFT. WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF S-CENTRAL TX
   BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERTICAL MIXING AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO
   THE REGION FROM SRN NM/FAR WRN TX SHOULD RESULT IN RH MINIMUMS OF
   15-25 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS IN THE BIG BEND AREA.
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...COLD
   FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SWD FROM WEST TX RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING
   NLY 15-25 MPH FROM N-S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ADVECTION OF
   COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
   CONSIDERABLE RH RECOVERY. 
   
   ALTHOUGH NOT PRESENTLY EXPECTED...IF LOWER RH MINIMUMS APPEAR LIKELY
   DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
   MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SWRN AND/OR S-CENTRAL TX IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 01/31/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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