Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100909
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
   WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
   DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
   MOVE SWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
   CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL AID IN A CONTINUATION OF OFFSHORE
   WINDS TO MUCH OF CA THROUGH TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
   THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN UPPER TROUGH...CREATING CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL VALLEYS/MTNS OF PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL AND SRN CA. THE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID-DAY
   BEFORE A SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. FARTHER
   EAST...LOW RH READINGS WILL BE FOUND FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
   VALLEY EWD INTO SRN AZ BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
   THAN 20 MPH PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - COASTAL VALLEYS/MTNS OF SRN AND
   PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 45 MPH....MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/NRN BAJA
   OF CA WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH TODAY. OFFSHORE
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER MOST OF CA...BUT
   SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING OVER NRN/CNTRL CA AS THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SLOWER DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER
   SRN CA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE A DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL LAYER OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO MID
   LEVELS WILL EXIST...OFFSETTING A WEAKENING THERMAL/PRESSURE
   GRADIENT.
   
   SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
   MPH WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MID-DAY OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR SRN
   CA...ESPECIALLY BELOW CANYONS AND THROUGH PASSES. MIN RH READINGS
   WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT...FURTHER EXACERBATING THE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE
   MARKEDLY BY MID AFTERNOON OVER SRN CA...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
   OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ...AS
   LOW LEVEL THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE GREAT
   BASIN AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. HOWEVER...A WEAKER OFFSHORE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY  (6 MB/S
   LESS) WILL GENERATE LESS SUSTAINED WINDS / BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH /
   WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
   
   ...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/SERN CA...
   SUSTAINED NLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
   BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE N-S SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   REMAINS STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DESPITE LOW
   RH READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
   REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...COASTAL HILLS OF NRN/CNTRL CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
   DIMINISH MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR SRN
   CA MOVES EWD...AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENT WEAKENS.
   AN OFFSHORE WIND IS FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP/INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT BUT
   REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/10/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100910
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2004
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON DAY ONE WILL SHIFT SWD
   INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH DAY TWO. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...A
   BUILDING AREA OF ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GREAT
   BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. NNELY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN INTO ERN CA...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS
   IN THE COASTAL RANGES/VALLEYS OF SRN/CENTRAL CA APPEAR TO BE LESS
   THAN CRITICAL LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG COLD WILL SHIFT SWD INTO
   THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD PROVIDING FOR BELOW NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION.
   
   ...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...
   NLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT
   BASIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE STRONGER
   WINDS...COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT MIN RH READINGS TO
   ABOVE 20 PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS OF MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...COASTAL MTNS OF SRN/CNTRL CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD
   FRONT. SUSTAINED NELY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 15 AND 25
   MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BETWEEN 12/06Z AND 12/12Z. UNCERTAINTY IN
   THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS AND LACK
   OF STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL PRECLUDE AN ISSUANCE
   OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/10/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home