Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120956
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO
   RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS/MTNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
   SLOWLY SWD INTO AZ/NM THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
   MOVES ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
   SERN CA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SPEED MAX ALONG
   WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF SRN CA/NRN GULF
   OF CALIFORNIA...WILL AID IN STRONG SUSTAINED NNELY WINDS DEVELOPING
   BY MID MORNING OVER MUCH OF SRN CA AND PORTIONS OF WRN AZ. A LONG
   DURATION OF STRONG WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SRN
   CA...ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR THE COASTAL RANGES WHERE OFFSHORE WINDS
   WILL REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
   20 AND 30 MPH OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
   OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG WITH LOW MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10
   PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THIS
   AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN CA/FAR WRN AZ AND FAR SRN
   NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 40 MPH....MIN RH READINGS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 PERCENT...POOR RH
   RECOVERY
   
   AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN DIVES SWD
   THROUGH THE DAY AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...STRONG
   NLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING OVER THE
   REGION. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
   BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS PRIMARY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...VERY
   DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND TRAJECTORIES
   OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL AID IN MIN RH READINGS BETWEEN 6 AND 12
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COMBINED WITH THIS DRY
   AIR...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO/LOWER GILA
   RIVER VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
   STRONG...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BUT SHOULD STILL
   REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH PROVIDING FOR POOR RH RECOVERY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - COASTAL VALLEY/MTNS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT....POOR RH
   RECOVERY
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE SLOWER IN ITS SWD ADVANCE
   THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THAN EARLIER/PRESENT MODEL FORECASTS. THIS
   SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT DELAY IN THE ONSET OF STRONGER OFFSHORE
   WINDS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING...WHEN A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
   CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED
   WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BETWEEN 12/15Z
   AND 12/18Z... BEHIND THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX/TROUGH
   PASSAGE...LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL...ALLOWING FOR EVEN BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER
   OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT IS
   ANTICIPATED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL
   OCCUR AFTER 13/00Z...WHEN GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS AND BELOW CANYONS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE
   FORECAST TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR MIN RH READINGS TO BE
   AROUND 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES OF CENTRAL CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER DURING THE DAY TODAY THAN AREAS
   FARTHER SOUTH...AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND STRONGEST PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL FAVOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING
   STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PAC NW WILL AID IN A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE
   OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED ESELY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALLOWING
   FOR POOR RH RECOVERY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/12/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...UPPER
   RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
   MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN CA
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DECREASE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 45 MPH BETWEEN 13/12Z AND 13/18Z...MIN RH READINGS AROUND
   15 PERCENT
   
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW MOVES EWD...AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
   INTO THE WEST COAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING
   OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN CA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
   PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AFTER 13/18Z.  ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
   DECREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA IN RESPONSE TO THE
   DIMINISHING GRADIENT AND EWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A
   SUFFICIENTLY LONG DURATION OF LOW RH READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND 15
   PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL EXIST FOR A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH
   LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...POOR RH RECOVERY IS STILL EXPECTED.
   
   ...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN AZ...
   AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES EWD...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE
   SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
   THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 13/12Z AND 13/18Z...WHERE
   SUSTAINED NNWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE LOW RH
   READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT...THE EXPECTED LACK OF A LONGER DURATION
   OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK ISSUANCE
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/12/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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