Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180841
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CST WED FEB 18 2004
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
   TROUGH NEARING THE CA COAST. SRN MOST SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 32N 127W
   AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL TRACK ESEWD INTO SRN CA THIS EVENING
   AND INTO AZ BY 19/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD 70-80KT 500MB WINDS
   ACROSS SRN CA AND SRN AZ DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. 
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN
   DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING
   INLAND ACROSS SRN/S-CENTRAL CA. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
   THE CO FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SWLY FLOW REGIME
   DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH. A 700MB THERMAL RIDGE AND SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   REGIME WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND TO THE CENTRAL AND
   SRN PLAINS REGIONS. 
   
   CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE PRESENCE OF A
   SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF COAST REGION WILL
   RESULT IN DRY NWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND MUCH
   OF FL TODAY.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN AZ AND SRN NM...
   
   SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH AND BECOME SWLY
   DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE BASINS AZ/NM AS UPPER
   TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
   IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO LOW
   MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT. MUCH OF THE INCREASE IN THE
   MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD OCCURS DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WLY WIND SHIFT
   ACROSS SRN AZ BETWEEN 8-12Z. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACT
   OF STRONGER WINDS AND WIND SHIFT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...AVOIDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   ...GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL...
   
   CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS INTO THE
   DISCUSSION AREA /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/ COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
   HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM SURFACE RH
   VALUES OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT SUPPORTS GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WINDS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT MARGINAL. DIMINISHING WIND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
   PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID RH RECOVERY AND SIGNIFICANT
   IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY EVENING. MARGINALLY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BETWEEN 19-23Z WHEN SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST /HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
   60S FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA/.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/18/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180840
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CST WED FEB 18 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL AZ
   AT 19/12Z WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EWD TO THE ERN NM/WRN TX BORDER BY
   20/00Z. VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET ON TROUGH/S SRN PERIPHERY...WITH
   500MB WINDS OF 80-90 KT...WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN NM INTO SWRN TX
   DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
   EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE
   ALONG AN E-W FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NERN NM ENEWD INTO
   N-CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS. FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN NM...WRN/SWRN/FAR WRN
   TX...AND SWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES / DRY FUELS
   
   STRONG WLY WINDS OF 20-40 MPH /GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE
   DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS/ WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL JET
   AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM
   THE NRN MEXICO PLATEAU WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY DRY THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY ACROSS SERN
   NM/SWRN AND FAR WRN TX. DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO 700MB
   WILL ENHANCE DRYING AND RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT
   ACROSS SERN NM/SWRN TX...AND 15-30 PERCENT ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK.
   COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE MID-FEBRUARY
   AVERAGES WILL EXIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
   80. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EPISODE
   ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY.
   
   AT 20/00Z...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK IS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SWD ACROSS WRN TX/SWRN OK DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL POSSESS MUCH
   HIGHER RH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...RAPID NLY WIND SHIFT AND
   CONTINUED STRONG WINDS MAY POSE A FIRE WEATHER HAZARD AT THE TIME OF
   FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/18/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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