Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060813
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2004
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE...FAST-MOVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   THE CONUS ON SATURDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
   EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW
   ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF THE
   NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THIS
   AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED 500MB JET STREAK OF 90-100KT WILL MOVE FROM WY
   ACROSS NEB...RESULTING IN A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NEB AND KS...
   
   SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AS LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WEST. DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS
   MOST OF KS...AND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RH MINIMUMS OF 20-30
   PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF KS/NEB. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
   15-20F HIGHER THAN FRIDAY. 
   
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL MIXING
   WITH AFTERNOON WINDS SWLY TO WLY AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A
   COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
   REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND ALONG WITH ONSET
   OF DIURNAL COOLING...WILL END PERIOD OF SUB 30 PERCENT RH CONDITIONS
   BETWEEN 06/23-07/02Z. 
   
   CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
   ACROSS MOST SECTIONS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S WIND AND LOW RH.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/06/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060816
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2004
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED IN VICINITY
   OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AT 07/12Z
   WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY
   SUNDAY EVENING. ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED 110-120KT 500MB JET DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
   TROUGH ACROSS MO INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. AT THE
   SFC...NWLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A
   LARGE REGION STRETCHING FROM NEB SEWD INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
   THIS WILL OCCUR BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
   FROM AN INITIAL POSITION OF WRN OH TO NERN AR...TO THE CAROLINA
   COAST AND NRN FL BY 08/00Z. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DRY...AND PRIMARY
   FOCUS WILL BE ON EXTENT OF DRYING THAT CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE NERN
   GULF COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...SRN GA/SRN AL/NRN FL INCLUDING FL PANHANDLE...
   
   DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS...NO RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NERN
   GULF COAST INCLUDING MOST OF FL. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   DEPENDS ON TWO FACTORS...(1) AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
   WITH SQUALL LINE EARLY ON THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AND (2) TIMING OF COLD
   FRONTAL PASSAGE ON DAY 2. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ADVECTS DRIER
   LOW-LEVEL AIR RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF
   NWLY WINDS 20-30 MPH...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND RH VALUES
   BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT. IF FRONT IS SLOWER THAN PROGGED...RH VALUES
   WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
   SUNSET. IF FORMER SCENARIO LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY BASED ON MODEL AND
   OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IS
   LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ...NEB SEWD INTO TN VALLEY....
   
   SURFACE RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS AROUND MAX AFTERNOON HEATING ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NWLY WINDS OF
   20-35 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE CORRIDOR SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND PRESENCE OF UPPER COLD POOL
   WILL HOLD SURFACE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA. ADDITIONALLY...CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM HAS
   LEFT FUELS GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
   PROBLEMS. AMBIENT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND WINDS LIGHTEN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   WILL FALL NEAR/BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING AIDING IN RAPID RH
   RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/06/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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