Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070852
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2004
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STAGNANT SURFACE FRONT FROM NORFOLK VA TO CENTRAL AL WILL MOVE SEWD
   INTO N-CENTRAL FL AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN FAVOR OF STRONGER UPSTREAM
   COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT UPPER VORT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
   THIS MORNING. SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
   CENTRAL PA WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT COMMENCING AROUND 08/00Z
   VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS NC. THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
   SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AT 08/00Z AND THEN SWEEP
   RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
   MONDAY.
   
   AN E-W 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF
   MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...NERN GULF COAST REGION...
   
   TWO FRONTAL ZONES WILL BRING GRADUAL DRYING TO THE NERN GULF COAST
   REGION THIS PERIOD. LEADING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO
   N-CENTRAL FL BY 08/00Z BRINGING MODEST DRYING TO SRN GA AND FAR NRN
   FL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE POTENT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
   N-CENTRAL GA WSWWD TO CENTRAL LA AT 08/00Z...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
   ADVECTION OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD ACROSS SRN GA AND MUCH OF FL. PRESENCE OF THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT
   WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
   NERN GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   AROUND 10F WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. 
   
   LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL NOT BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH THIS PERIOD TO PRODUCE
   PROLONGED SUB-35 PERCENT RH VALUES ACROSS SRN GA OR FL. AS SURFACE
   WINDS VEER FROM WLY 10-20 MPH TO NWLY 15-25 MPH BETWEEN 21-00Z WITH
   INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A BAND OF MARGINAL RH VALUES BETWEEN 35-45
   PERCENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED DRYING
   OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY OFFSET DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND MAINTAIN THESE
   MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM COASTAL SC SWWD INTO GA AND SWD ACROSS
   NRN/CENTRAL FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE VERY DRY FUELS
   AND FAVORABLE NWLY WIND CONDITIONS LATE TODAY...MARGINAL RH WILL
   PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA.
   
   ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
   
   LARGE REGION OF NWLY SURFACE WINDS 20-35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN
   POST-FRONTAL REGIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW RH
   MINIMUMS OF 20-30 PERCENT ARE LIKELY FROM CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS AR
   INTO WRN TN...RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS LEFT FUELS MOIST AND
   UNRECEPTIVE FOR A LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AMBIENT
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
   WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 MPH AND RH VALUES RISE APPRECIABLY WITH
   DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/07/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070854
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2004
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FL AND ADJACENT SERN AL AND FAR
   SRN GA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
   ONGOING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
   ACROSS TX. A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST AREA...WILL BE LOCATED
   ACROSS EXTREME SRN FL AFTER SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA
   DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT AND
   PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR SEWD ACROSS THE FL
   PENINSULA DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES
   SOUTH OF THE FL KEYS BY 08/18Z. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FUEL CONDITIONS
   ARE FAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FL AND
   ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SERN AL/SRN GA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SRN GA...SERN AL...AND FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH VALUES / MODERATE NWLY WINDS / MARCH
   RAINFALL: NIL
   
   MODERATE NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS 15-25 MPH DURING
   MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS ACROSS
   FL. DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE
   NRN PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
   EVERGLADES...WILL CONTRIBUTE STRONGLY TO ANOMALOUSLY LOW RH VALUES
   OF 20-30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL/NRN FL AND 30-40 PERCENT IN
   S-CENTRAL/SRN FL. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES /HIGHS FROM THE 60S
   NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH/ WITH DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXISTENCE OF VERY
   LOW RH VALUES WILL BE OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN. ADDITIONALLY...LAST
   PRECIPITATION EPISODE OCCURRED FEBRUARY 26TH...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE
   TIME FOR DRYING OF MOST FUEL TYPES. COUPLED WITH RECENT ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES...FUEL CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER RISK. MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL EXIST FROM 15Z-00Z
   BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO WEAKEN
   MONDAY EVENING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/07/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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