Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 100835
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST WED MAR 10 2004
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE NWLY STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. ONE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
SE...WHILE ANOTHER HIGH WILL CAUSE INCREASING WINDS OVER SRN
CA...WHERE IT WILL BE HOT UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN FL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / UNSTABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO SRN FL TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...AND
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HEATING AND STEEP / UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
BY AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 F. NWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION
OF WIND...RH...AND LOCALLY HIGH KBDI VALUES IN EXCESS OF 600 WILL
CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SRN CA...
IT WILL BE DRY...WARM AND WINDY TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION. NLY WINDS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH HIGHER PRESSURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE COMMON
INITIALLY OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT...SPREADING SWWD INTO THE COASTAL
RANGE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME OVER THE DESERT...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THROUGH THE CANYONS AND PASSES.
MIN RH VALUES DURING THE DAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT OVER THE
DESERT TO 15-25 PERCENT ALONG AND JUST W OF THE COASTAL RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND IN THE 80S AND 90S F. AS A
RESULT...A VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP. RH
RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG AND W
OF THE COASTAL RANGE. RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL HELP MITIGATE THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID DRYING OF FUELS.
...NRN FL...
RH LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON PREVIOUS DAY OVER NRN
FL...FROM 30-35 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL STILL BE A
FACTOR OUT OF THE N AT 10-15 MPH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S F
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIP FELL OVER FAR NRN FL YESTERDAY...AND
KBDI VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN THIS REGION. RH RECOVERY
WILL BE GOOD AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN.
...NRN AZ...
IT WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY WITHIN THERMAL LOW CENTERED OVER
AZ...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 70S IN FLAGSTAFF TO THE
LOWER 90S IN PHOENIX. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A POCKET OF COLD AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG HEATING BELOW TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AND
DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE RIM AND THEN
MOVING SEWED OVERNIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
DRY...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCIES
WILL BE RATHER LOW...DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND WETTING OF THE
FUELS.
..JEWELL.. 03/10/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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FNUS22 KWNS 100909
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST WED MAR 10 2004
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE U.S...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE GETS REINFORCED WITH
ANOTHER HIGH THAT WILL MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. THUS...COOL
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SERN QUARTER OF THE NATION.
OUT WEST...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE A FEW DRY STORMS OVER SERN
AZ...WHILE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER SRN CA AND SW AZ.
...ERN OK / AR INTO NRN FL / AL / GA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S F. MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE LOWEST OVER OK AND AR FROM 20-25 PERCENT....WITH
VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH OVER OK AND WRN AR TO 10-15 MPH
ELSEWHERE.
RH LEVELS WILL BE UP OVER SRN FL ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
...SRN AZ...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS AZ AND SRN NM ON THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE E...OUT OF NM/W TX...AND WILL BRING COOLER AND
MORE HUMID AIR ACROSS SRN NM INTO SWRN AZ BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
STAGE WILL THUS BE SET FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WILL FORM OVER W CENTRAL NM AND ERN AZ IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING. LITTLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...BUT RH
LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS PERSIST AND OUTFLOW
COOLS THE AREA.
..JEWELL.. 03/10/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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