Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100835
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CST WED MAR 10 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE NWLY STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
   THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.  ONE AREA OF
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
   SE...WHILE ANOTHER HIGH WILL CAUSE INCREASING WINDS OVER SRN
   CA...WHERE IT WILL BE HOT UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / UNSTABLE LOWER
   ATMOSPHERE
   
   DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
   BUILD SWD INTO SRN FL TODAY.  THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...AND
   WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HEATING AND STEEP / UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
    BY AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON WITH
   TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 F.  NWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION
   OF WIND...RH...AND LOCALLY HIGH KBDI VALUES IN EXCESS OF 600 WILL
   CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   IT WILL BE DRY...WARM AND WINDY TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
   MOVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION. NLY WINDS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH HIGHER PRESSURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
    AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE COMMON
   INITIALLY OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT...SPREADING SWWD INTO THE COASTAL
   RANGE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY MORNING.  GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
   BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME OVER THE DESERT...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT
   AS OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THROUGH THE CANYONS AND PASSES. 
   
   MIN RH VALUES DURING THE DAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT OVER THE
   DESERT TO 15-25 PERCENT ALONG AND JUST W OF THE COASTAL RANGE. 
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND IN THE 80S AND 90S F.  AS A
   RESULT...A VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP.  RH
   RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG AND W
   OF THE COASTAL RANGE.  RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL HELP MITIGATE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR RAPID DRYING OF FUELS.
   
   ...NRN FL...
   RH LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON PREVIOUS DAY OVER NRN
   FL...FROM 30-35 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME.  WINDS WILL STILL BE A
   FACTOR OUT OF THE N AT 10-15 MPH.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE STEEP...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S F
   THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT PRECIP FELL OVER FAR NRN FL YESTERDAY...AND
   KBDI VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN THIS REGION.  RH RECOVERY
   WILL BE GOOD AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS  WILL WEAKEN.  
   
   ...NRN AZ...
   IT WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY WITHIN THERMAL LOW CENTERED OVER
   AZ...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 70S IN FLAGSTAFF TO THE
   LOWER 90S IN PHOENIX.  ABOVE THE SURFACE...A POCKET OF COLD AIR WILL
   COMBINE WITH THE STRONG HEATING BELOW TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AND
   DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY DEVELOP DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE RIM AND THEN
   MOVING SEWED OVERNIGHT.  ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
   DRY...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCIES
   WILL BE RATHER LOW...DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND WETTING OF THE
   FUELS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/10/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100909
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 AM CST WED MAR 10 2004
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
   THE NE U.S...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE GETS REINFORCED WITH
   ANOTHER HIGH THAT WILL MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS.  THUS...COOL
   AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. 
   OUT WEST...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE A FEW DRY STORMS OVER SERN
   AZ...WHILE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER SRN CA AND SW AZ.
   
   ...ERN OK / AR INTO NRN FL / AL / GA...
   A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND
    WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI.  DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
   WILL PREVAIL...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S F. MIN RH
   VALUES WILL BE LOWEST OVER OK AND AR FROM 20-25 PERCENT....WITH
   VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.  WIND
   SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH OVER OK AND WRN AR TO 10-15 MPH
   ELSEWHERE.  
   
   RH LEVELS WILL BE UP OVER SRN FL ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT COMPARED TO
   PREVIOUS DAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS AZ AND SRN NM ON THURSDAY.  AT
   THE SURFACE...A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN.  A COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE IN FROM THE E...OUT OF NM/W TX...AND WILL BRING COOLER AND
   MORE HUMID AIR ACROSS SRN NM INTO SWRN AZ BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
   STAGE WILL THUS BE SET FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON THAT WILL FORM OVER W CENTRAL NM AND ERN AZ IN THE HIGH
   TERRAIN.  VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH
   LIGHTNING.  LITTLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...BUT RH
   LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS PERSIST AND OUTFLOW
   COOLS THE AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/10/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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