Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130812
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 14/12Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. LARGE REGION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND
20S EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS SC/GA/AL/MS.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN SD SWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE TO ERN CO WILL
EVOLVE INTO A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 14/00Z.
STRONG NWLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY IN POST-FRONTAL REGIME
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RH MINIMUMS LOCALLY
AROUND 30 PERCENT. COOL TEMPERATURES /40S AND 50S/ COINCIDING WITH
THESE RH VALUES WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
IN THE SWRN STATES...E-W ORIENTED 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM SRN CA TO SRN NM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AREAS OF RH VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SRN CA AND NRN AZ...HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOCAL
MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SERN STATES...
NCEP/CPC 7-DAY PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS ENDING YESTERDAY INDICATES A
CONTINUED ABSENCE OF RAINFALL FROM S-CENTRAL NC SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN GA AND MUCH OF FL. UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS FOR A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT FROM INTERIOR NC
SWWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING NRN FL...AS HIGHS
REACH THE 60S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
NERN GULF COAST REGION. DESPITE THESE FACTORS...THE LIGHT NELY TO
ELY WINDS /AT OR BELOW 15 MPH/ EXPECTED ON SRN PERIPHERY OF OHIO
VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA
THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES SHOULD
RECOVER RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.
..BANACOS.. 03/13/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 130814
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...STRONG 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER OBTAINING MORE SLY
COMPONENT ACROSS THE SERN STATES. THIS SHOULD RAISE AFTERNOON RH
VALUES BY 10-20 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WITH RH
MINIMUMS BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS REGION WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT
ACROSS NEB/KS/NRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. MARGINAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS AND
NWLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
IN THE SWRN U.S...E-W THERMAL RIDGE AT 700MB REMAINS IN PLACE DURING
DAY 2. THIS FEATURE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEY/BASIN HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ACROSS AZ AND
INTERIOR CENTRAL/SRN CA WITH A FEW 90S POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER CO
VALLEY REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ARE LIKELY...BUT
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LARGE-SCALE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE TEMPERATURE AND RH CONDITIONS.
..BANACOS.. 03/13/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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