Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130812
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 14/12Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING ALOFT. LARGE REGION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND
   20S EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS SC/GA/AL/MS. 
   
   UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
   SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN SD SWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE TO ERN CO WILL
   EVOLVE INTO A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 14/00Z.
   STRONG NWLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY IN POST-FRONTAL REGIME
   ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RH MINIMUMS LOCALLY
   AROUND 30 PERCENT. COOL TEMPERATURES /40S AND 50S/ COINCIDING WITH
   THESE RH VALUES WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   IN THE SWRN STATES...E-W ORIENTED 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
   FROM SRN CA TO SRN NM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AREAS OF RH VALUES
   BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT
   SECTIONS OF SRN CA AND NRN AZ...HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT
   ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOCAL
   MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   
   NCEP/CPC 7-DAY PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS ENDING YESTERDAY INDICATES A
   CONTINUED ABSENCE OF RAINFALL FROM S-CENTRAL NC SWWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN GA AND MUCH OF FL. UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
   REGION WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS FOR A FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT FROM INTERIOR NC
   SWWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING NRN FL...AS HIGHS
   REACH THE 60S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
   NERN GULF COAST REGION. DESPITE THESE FACTORS...THE LIGHT NELY TO
   ELY WINDS /AT OR BELOW 15 MPH/ EXPECTED ON SRN PERIPHERY OF OHIO
   VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA
   THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES SHOULD
   RECOVER RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/13/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130814
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...STRONG 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY EARLY
   MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
   MID MS VALLEY REGION. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER OBTAINING MORE SLY
   COMPONENT ACROSS THE SERN STATES. THIS SHOULD RAISE AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES BY 10-20 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WITH RH
   MINIMUMS BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.
   
   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND
   SRN PLAINS REGION WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT
   ACROSS NEB/KS/NRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. MARGINAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS AND
   NWLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER
   PROBLEMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   IN THE SWRN U.S...E-W THERMAL RIDGE AT 700MB REMAINS IN PLACE DURING
   DAY 2. THIS FEATURE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEY/BASIN HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ACROSS AZ AND
   INTERIOR CENTRAL/SRN CA WITH A FEW 90S POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER CO
   VALLEY REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ARE LIKELY...BUT
   WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LARGE-SCALE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT DESPITE TEMPERATURE AND RH CONDITIONS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/13/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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