Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230852
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CST TUE MAR 23 2004
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND
   OZARKS REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME DECIDEDLY MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS
   THIS PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN CONUS DEAMPLIFIES.
   PREVAILING WLY 30-40KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE WILL
   MAINTAIN A SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN CO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
   IN THE WEST...700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS MOVEMENT OF THE 700MB THERMAL
   RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE
   SRN CA COAST TO CENTRAL AZ BY 24/06Z.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/WRN AR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / POCKETS OF DRY
   FUELS
   
   LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA BY AFTERNOON OWING TO GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
   LEE CYCLONE. MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT
   NWD PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CRITICAL RISK AREA...WITH MOIST AXIS
   ACROSS WRN OK AND CENTRAL KS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   HIGHS AROUND 70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT
   FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   ADDITIONALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY INDICATED
   NUMEROUS WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR/SWRN MO.
   WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WINDS
   AROUND 10 MPH HIGHER...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN
   SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RH VALUES RECOVER AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   
   WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE OUTER
   BANKS OF NC SWWD INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...LOW-LEVEL DRY
   CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. VERY LOW
   MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   THE FL PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL/SRN AL NEWD ACROSS GA INTO INTERIOR SC
   AND NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F ACROSS
   SRN GA AND NRN FL INCLUDING THE FL PANHANDLE. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS
   IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
   BELOW 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. RH RECOVERY WILL BE
   RAPID AFTER SUNSET WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIVE
   COOLING.
   
   ...SWRN CONUS AND SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO 20-30
   KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALIZED AREAS OF SWLY TO WLY
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OWING TO DAYTIME HEATING
   AND VERTICAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
   SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ. MINIMUM RH
   VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS NRN AZ. OVERALL
   WIND SPEEDS AND RH CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA THIS PERIOD IN THE SWRN CONUS REGION.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/23/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230856
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 AM CST TUE MAR 23 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES WILL OCCUR TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
   THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   SHIFTING EWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...A STEADY MOISTENING OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST REGION NWD INTO
   THE CAROLINAS. REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
   TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NC/SC/GA REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
   REGION OF 25-35 PERCENT RH VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT; SELY AT 5-10 MPH.
   
   ELSEWHERE...MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
   ACROSS THE OZARKS...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE
   TUESDAY/S EXPECTED VALUES. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
   LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   IN THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
   STATES WHILE A SHORT AMPLITUDE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF
   THE FRONT...FROM SRN NM TO CENTRAL MT.
   
   ....SRN GREAT BASIN...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF AZ...
   
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WSWLY 500MB FLOW INCREASING
   TO 40KT AS FAR SOUTH OF INTERIOR SRN CA AND NRN AZ BY 25/00Z.
   MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT MAY AID IN BRINGING SURFACE WINDS TO 20
   MPH ACROSS THE MTNS OF NRN AZ AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE MARGINALLY
   LOW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
   REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS OR LOWER
   RH VALUES...WHICH MAY REQUIRE A CRITICAL RISK AREA IN TOMORROW/S DAY
   1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/23/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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