Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240842
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 AM CST WED MAR 24 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
   AND OZARKS REGION THIS PERIOD. MARGINAL WIND AND RH CONDITIONS WILL
   AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN GREAT
   BASIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   RISK AREA ON DAY 1.
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   
   SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
   MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...INCREASING SLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTENING TO THE NERN GULF COAST AREA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS
   TODAY. LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE INLAND FROM NERN
   GA WWD ACROSS NRN AL/NRN MS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15
   MPH IN THIS AREA WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO SRN ROCKIES...
   
   WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD TO THE
   CO FRONT RANGE WILL MAINTAIN A SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF WRN KS/ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RAISE AFTERNOON RH VALUES
   ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...WITH SURFACE
   RH MINIMUMS ABOVE 40 PERCENT AND 15-25 PERCENT HIGHER THAN TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LESSEN FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE OZARKS REGION. IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE
   RH VALUES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE ARE LIKELY IN VICINITY OF THE
   LEE TROUGH...FROM NERN CO SWD INTO THE PLAINS OF ERN NM. SURFACE
   WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH /GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH/ ACROSS
   THIS REGION TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.  
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OFF THE WA/ORE COAST
   NEAR 45N 135W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INLAND
   ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS THIS PERIOD...MOVING INTO THE NWRN GREAT BASIN
   BY 25/21Z. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/SRN NV AND SRN
   UT...VALLEY/BASIN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S COMBINED WITH RH
   VALUES IN 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...WITH SURFACE WINDS AT OR BELOW
   15 MPH...WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR IN FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/24/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240844
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 AM CST WED MAR 24 2004
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING 500MB
   TROUGH INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND NE-SW FROM NRN WY TO THE
   CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA. FIRE WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONDITIONS
   EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN
   INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERMAL RIDGING AT 700MB WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS WRN NM/WRN CO IN ADVANCE OF NWRN U.S. TROUGH.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS
   WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AS MIXED LAYER
   DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL MIXING AND DRY
   TRAJECTORIES ALSO SUGGEST VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT
   FROM INTERIOR SRN CA NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN NV AND SWRN UT. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
   NV...TO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR SRN CA
   AND VALLEYS OF SRN NV. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT OCCURRED IN GENERAL
   ACROSS THE WRN/SRN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS. 
   
   IN THE EVENT OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS THAN PRESENTLY
   FORECAST...PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
   TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/24/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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