Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120800
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CDT MON APR 12 2004
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM SRN CA
   NWD TO INTERIOR WA/ORE THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BROUGHT
   WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW/VERY LOW AFTERNOON
   RH CONDITIONS TO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOW
   80S WERE SET IN WRN WA ON SUNDAY.
   
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE NERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL APPROACH THE WA
   COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
   SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AREA BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD...BRINGING
   COOLER CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
   SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FROM THE GREAT BASIN NWD INTO THE
   COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE NRN ROCKIES REGION.
   
   UNSEASONABLY COOL AND/OR MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL MITIGATE FIRE
   WEATHER THREATS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...CASCADE EAST SLOPES/INTERIOR BASINS OF WA/ORE...
   
   THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND
   PEAK HEATING TODAY...WITH AN ENHANCED SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
   BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WA/ORE CASCADES AS WINDS BECOME
   ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD ESTABLISH SOME LOCALLY
   STRONGER WLY TO NWLY WINDS /15-30 MPH/ ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
   CASCADES IN WA/ORE THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH. ABSENCE OF
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR THIS MONTH...AND RECENT
   RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT ABNORMALLY DRY FUEL
   CONDITIONS LIKELY EXIST...PARTICULARLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN SHOULD REACH THE MID
   70S TO LOWER 80S. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING RH VALUES AROUND
   20 PERCENT...ANY LOCALLY STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL POSE A
   LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   PRIOR TO THE MARINE PUSH...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
   AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
   CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF THE CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NNEWD AT
   20-30 MPH...AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
   GIVEN MODERATE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 04/12/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120801
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CDT MON APR 12 2004
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE WRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 30-40 KT ACROSS THE
   WRN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA ON DAY 2. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
   CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EWD TO THE CONTINENTAL
   DIVIDE BY 14/00Z...WHILE A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND
   ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
   TO THE NWRN STATES SWD INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA. A SURFACE
   COLD FRONT REFLECTING THE COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO
   MID LEVELS WILL EXTEND FROM NE-SW FROM NRN ID TO FAR NWRN NV DURING
   THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST
   ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE INCREASE IN SURFACE
   WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
   ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL AND SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH VALUES / MODERATE WINDS
   
   SLY TO SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND DEEP LAYER MIXING TRANSPORTS
   STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
   80S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES BETWEEN 8-15 PERCENT.
   
   NCEP SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLACES GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT
   PROBABILITY OF 50+ FOSBERG INDEX VALUES ACROSS S-CENTRAL NV AROUND
   THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL DURING THE PAST
   WEEK ACROSS ERN NV INTO UT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   IN THESE AREAS DESPITE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADDITIONALLY...THREAT
   FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
   NRN NV DURING THE EVENING HOURS WILL CONFINE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL TO CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF NV. RH VALUES WILL BE
   SLOW TO RECOVER ACROSS SRN NV AS SWLY GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS STRONG
   THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 04/12/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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