Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150932
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 AM CDT THU APR 15 2004
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN MN / SRN WI / NERN IA / NWRN
   IL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND MS
   VALLEY TODAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUT STILL A MODERATE SWLY FLOW
   REGIME.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL ALLOW STRONG
   HEATING AND VERY LOW RH VALUES FROM MS/AL INTO GA/FL...WHILE
   SIMULTANEOUSLY CAUSING STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE MS
   VALLEY WITH LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF VERY
   STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR MN
   AND WI.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN MN / SRN WI / NERN IA / NWRN
   IL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DROUGHT
   
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
   DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  BY MIDDAY...EXPECT SLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...WITH STRONGER GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
   COMMON DURING PEAK HEATING.  MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM
   OUT BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT.  FUELS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT THE LAST FEW
   DAYS AND THERE HAS BEEN NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
   
   SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE LIKELY FOR PART OF THE DAY AS DEBRIS
   CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT WIND
   SPEEDS VERY MUCH GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE
   GRADIENTS...BUT COULD PREVENT FUELS FROM ACHIEVING FULL HEATING
   POTENTIAL FROM SUNSHINE.
   
   ...WYOMING / ERN GREAT BASIN / WRN CO / NRN AZ...
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE WARM AND WINDY
   CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IT WILL BE
   PARTICULARLY WINDY OVER WY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 30
   MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVERALL...RANGING FROM THE 50S OVER
   WY TO NEAR 70 OVER UT AND WRN CO AND NRN AZ.  ALTHOUGH COOL...RH
   LEVELS WILL EASILY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. 
   MITIGATING FACTOR TO CRITICAL ISSUANCE CONTINUES TO BE RECENT
   PRECIPITATION AND AREAS THAT ARE IN GREENUP...WHICH CONTINUES TO
   RETARD FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...SD / NEBRASKA...
   A VERY WARM AND DRY WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
   FOR DEEP MIXING LAYERS IN EXCESS OF 6000 FT AGL WHICH WILL HELP
   BRING WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.  MIN RH
   WILL BE AROUND 20 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING.  AS A RESULT...FIRE
   DANGERS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.  MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL ISSUANCE.
   
   ...SRN MS/AL...SRN GA AND CENTRAL / NRN FL...
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE
   RH LEVELS TO DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FROM 25-30 PERCENT IN
   GENERAL.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER MS / AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
   SWRN GA...WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT...BUT
   WILL PICK UP INTO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE OVER N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL FL.
    ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF THE STATE HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANT
   PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS...LOCALIZED AREAS COULD HAVE
   ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/15/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150958
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CDT THU APR 15 2004
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL COVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY...THE EXCEPTION
   BEING A TROUGH THAT WILL COME INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGING COOLER
   CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION.  IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER THE
   FOUR CORNERS STATES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS MS VALLEY
   REGION.  DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN / SRN CA / NRN AZ / SRN UT...
   WARM AND DRY SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER A VERY LARGE AREA...FROM
   SRN CA TO WI.  UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CA AND WILL CAUSE WINDS
   TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION.  SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR...WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS.  RECENT
   PRECIPITATION AND VEGETATION STATE CONTINUE TO BE MITIGATING FACTOR.
   
   
   ...MN / WI...
   PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INCLUDING MN AND
   WI EARLY IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD...AND WILL AFFECT FUEL CONDITIONS. 
   HOWEVER...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE
   AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS AND RH OF 25-30 PERCENT.  
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ELY DIRECTION OVER FL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
   MOVES TO THE EAST.  SLY WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP RAISE
   RH LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT INLAND RH LEVELS WILL
   REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F
   TO LOWER 80S F.  KBDI VALUES REMAIN LOW FROM SRN MS/AL INTO SRN GA
   AND NRN FL AROUND 500. STRONG SUNSHINE AND LOW RH WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROMOTE GOOD DRYING OF FUELS...WHICH ALONG WITH LOW/MARGINAL WIND
   SPEEDS...ARE THE MITIGATING FACTORS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/15/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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