Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271018
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 AM CDT TUE APR 27 2004
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN ID/MT/WRN DAKOTAS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA/SERN AL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED AROUND 50 N/133 W EARLY TUE AM WILL DIVE
   SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES BRINGING A SFC COLD
   FRONT ACROSS WRN MT BY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
   RAPIDLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
   ERN DAKOTAS BY 28/00Z. IN THE EAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
   EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE...BUT STRONG WINDS AT LOWER/MID LEVELS AND
   A MAJOR AIRMASS CHANGE WILL WORSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NERN ID/MT/WRN DAKOTAS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS TO 50 MPH/ MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT / ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES / LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
   POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MID LEVEL
   WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60-70 KT BY EVENING...AND VERY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. POINT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS ALMOST TO 500 MB...AND
   TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 DEGREES. MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY FALL
   AS LOW AS 10-15 PERCENT. RECENT NFDRS FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS
   ARE AND ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH RANGE. THE AREA
   CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL LONG TERM
   DROUGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN
   FIRES.
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MT BY EARLY WED...WHICH WILL HELP
   IMPROVE CONDITIONS IN THE NRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...AREAS FARTHER EAST
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HAVE WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS BY
   WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA/SERN AL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-25 PERCENT / SUSTAINED SFC
   WINDS 15-20 MPH / LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   A MAJOR AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
   NOW JUST SE OF JAX/GNV. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
   STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS CNTRL AL/NRN GA...WITH LOCAL
   VWP DATA SHOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30 KT JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
   SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
   FALLING WELL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MANY HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
   DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
   70S/LOWER 80S. IN ADDITION POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING
   HEIGHTS AROUND 750-800MB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST 20-30 KT.
   THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THESE WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC...WHICH
   IN COMBINATION WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND WARM TEMPS WILL EXACERBATE
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RECENT KBDI VALUES ARE ABOVE
   500...INDICATIVE OF LONG TERM DROUGHT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/27/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 271021
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0521 AM CDT TUE APR 27 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ...SERN CA/SRN NV/SWRN UT/NRN
   AZ......
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
   WED. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
   ACROSS TX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
   U.S./CANADA BORDER ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
   MN/CNTRL NE INTO NRN CO BY WED NIGHT. VERY STRONG SFC WINDS / 20-35
   MPH / WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MT/WRN DAKOTAS BUT COOLER TEMPS AND
   HIGHER RH VALUES WILL MODULATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER...IN
   THE WARM SECTOR VERY STRONG S/SW WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
   MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN CA/SRN NV/SWRN UT/NRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH / MINIMUM RH
   VALUES 10-15 PERCENT / LONG TERM DROUGHT...
   
   MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-50 KT AHEAD OF A SPEED
   MAX MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS TO AROUND 500 MB. AN OUTLOOK AREA
   WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL OF VERY STRONG SFC WINDS...AND LOW
   RH VALUES.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   SFC WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS MN/ERN DAKOTAS/WI ON
   WED...GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
   ADVECTED NORTH IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES
   AROUND 25 PERCENT OR HIGHER. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY ALSO TRIGGER
   SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED. FOR THESE REASONS...A
   CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN
   FIRES DEFINITELY WILL INCREASE ON WED.
   
   ...FL...
   A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NRN FL. HOWEVER...IT
   APPEARS THAT ELY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...GENERALLY 10-20 MPH.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/27/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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