Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280728
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT WED APR 28 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS
   RIVER VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UNUSUALLY DRY MID-SPRING PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
   COUNTRY TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NNE-SSW FROM THE ERN GREAT
   LAKES TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IS IMPEDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURN ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   WILL REMAIN SLY TO SWLY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
   INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES AS A SURFACE CYCLONE
   OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES ESEWD TO NRN MN BY 29/00Z. ATTENDANT
   FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
   PROGRESS SEWD AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO SERN WY TO
   NRN MN BY 29/00Z. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN WA/NRN ID THIS MORNING...AND THIS UPPER
   LOW WILL MOVE SWD TO NERN NV DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL AND ERN SD...SERN
   ND...MUCH OF MN AND WI...WRN UPPER MI...AND NRN IA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / LOW TO VERY LOW RH VALUES / PRE-GREENUP
   GRASSES
   
   SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE WRN
   GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
   SRN MN AND SRN WI LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD THIS MORNING. PARENT CYCLONE
   OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SWLY WINDS OF
   25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN VICINITY OF NRN IA/ERN MN/WI THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW
   WILL CAUSE SHIFTING WINDS /TO THE NW/ AND ISOLATED GUSTY
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM NWRN/N-CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO ERN SD DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
   
   ETA/GFS FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S OVER WI/ERN
   MN THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR MUCH TOO HIGH...PERHAPS OWING TO
   OVERESTIMATE OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS FROM THE GROUND AND LOW
   MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS DUE TO CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 850 MB. WHATEVER
   THE CASE...DEWPOINTS MORE LIKELY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AROUND
   MAX HEATING TIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUB 30 PERCENT RH VALUES AND
   WILL CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS ERN
   MN/WI/WRN UPPER MI. LOWEST RH VALUES WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE
   FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN MN TO ERN SD...WITH MINIMUM READINGS OF 15-20
   PERCENT LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
   CENTRAL WI TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
   FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO SERN SD.
   
   LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGION ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN WI AND
   WRN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER
   THIS MORNING. MONTHLY PRECIPITATION GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL
   COUPLED WITH PRE-GREENUP CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS SUGGEST FAVORABLE
   FUELS FOR WILDFIRES. COUPLED WITH AMBIENT WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIKELY THIS PERIOD OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN NV / CENTRAL AND NRN AZ / SRN
   UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES
   
   A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN SURFACE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
   THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT
   BASIN BY THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW ON SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH EXISTING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN REGION...WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL
   MIXING ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
   SWLY TO WLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...AND EXTREMELY LOW MINIMUM
   RH VALUES OF 6-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS 500 MB FLOW
   STRENGTHENS TO 50 KT BY 29/12Z. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO LIMIT
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY AWAY FROM BASIN/VALLEY AREAS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 04/28/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280815
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 AM CDT WED APR 28 2004
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SWRN U.S....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
   THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AT 29/12Z WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NERN AZ BY
   30/12Z. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ON CONTINUED STRONG WLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /50-60 KT AT 500 MB/ AND CORRESPONDINGLY STRONG
   SURFACE WINDS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER FROM THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY EWD TO SERN AZ.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN AZ...AND FAR WRN/SWRN
   NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / VERY LOW RH VALUES
   
   LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
   TO A STEADY INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
   THURSDAY. SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN AZ AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AS STRONG MID-LEVEL
   WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BASIN/VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
   MID TO UPPER 80S COMBINED WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT. 
   
   SIMILAR SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NM DURING THE
   FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING
   RECENT WEEKS SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS OVER MOST OF NM
   EXCEPT FAR WRN/SWRN SECTIONS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 04/28/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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