Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020751
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
   PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST. SOME INCREASE IN
   700MB TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES REGION WILL TRANSLATE TO
   WARMER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   INTERIOR NWRN CONUS. MEANWHILE VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND REMAINDER OF THE SWRN REGION. RH
   MINIMUMS BETWEEN 5-10 PERCENT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE BASIN/VALLEYS OF
   INTERIOR CA...SRN GREAT BASIN...AND NM/AZ WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 90S TO 105. DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...TO 500MB ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DRY FUELS SUGGEST MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
   PLUME DOMINANT FIRE ACTIVITY. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...GRADIENT WINDS
   ARE WEAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOCAL
   THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 MPH WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER ISSUANCE.
   
   ...MTNS OF SRN WY AND CENTRAL/WRN CO...
   
   A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SRN WY SWD INTO
   WRN/CENTRAL CO EWD TO THE FRONT RANGE. CONVECTION WILL FORM WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE MTNS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF
   LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WITHIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED. CELLS WHICH FORM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD
   AT 15-20 MPH WITH LOCALIZED BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WITH
   LITTLE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. 
   
   ...INTERIOR NC AND SC INTO E-CENTRAL GA...
   
   COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY HAS LEFT AREA OF LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. DAYTIME HEATING/TURBULENT
   MIXING WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. AXIS OF RH VALUES BRIEFLY
   INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FROM E-CENTRAL GA NEWD ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WLY TO SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-15
   MPH SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER THREAT BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/02/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020752
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NM NWD INTO CENTRAL CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY
   ACROSS SRN NM/AZ RESULTING IN CONTINUED VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN CONUS NWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. RIDGE WILL
   ALSO EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES REGION...WITH HIGH
   TEMPERATURES THURSDAY GENERALLY 10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
   EARLY JUNE. SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IN VICINITY
   OF THE RIDGE. MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE GENERAL DRYING TREND
   AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED
   HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NM MTNS NWD INTO
   CENTRAL CO EWD TO THE FRONT RANGE. POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ON DAY
   2 FOLLOWING SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF
   THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE NEAR/ALONG THE ERN
   SLOPES. ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF DRY STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
   THE ERN ID/SWRN MT BORDER LATE THURSDAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL NM NWD INTO CENTRAL CO AND
   EWD TO THE FRONT RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED STRONG
   WINDS WITH T-STORMS
   
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON
   HEATING OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL NM NWD INTO CENTRAL CO. THE 00Z ETA
   INDICATES PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
   CRISTO MTNS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
   MUCAPE RANGING FROM 100-500 J/KG. FUEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION
   ARE GENERALLY DRY DUE TO RECENT HOT/DRY WEATHER. ANTICIPATED DRY
   NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT OF LIGHTNING
   INDUCED WILDFIRE STARTS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
   STORMS...AS THEY TRACK EWD TO ESEWD AT 15-20 MPH.
   
   ...CENTRAL ID...WRN/SWRN MT...NWRN WY...
   
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE ID/MT BORDER
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON /MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG /. DEVELOPING STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH CELLS TRACKING
   ENEWD AT 25-30 MPH. DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES IN THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY. MAIN QUESTION FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA IS WHETHER FUELS WILL BE RECEPTIVE TO IGNITION GIVEN
   ONLY VERY RECENT WARMING TREND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. FUEL
   MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRES IS
   LOW TO MODERATE...HOWEVER...LIGHTNING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MONITORED
   NEAR AREAS OF LOCALLY DRIER FUEL CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/02/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home